RWH041: IGNORE THE CROWD

W/ SUPER-INVESTOR BRUCE BERKOWITZ

17 February 2024

In this episode, William Green chats with famed investor Bruce Berkowitz, whose Fairholme Fund has beaten the S&P 500 by 529 percentage points over 23 years. Bruce, who was named Morningstar’s Domestic Stock-Fund Manager of the Decade in 2009, talks here about the ups & downs of his volatile career, how he changed his investment strategy after three costly losses, why he likes cash as a kind of “financial valium,” & why 80% of his fund is riding on one stock.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • What Bruce Berkowitz learned about odds by working as a bookmaker.
  • What his stint as a broker taught him about how not to invest.
  • Why he makes huge bets on a tiny number of stocks.
  • How he’s riding a multi-decade wave of migration to Florida.
  • How he justifies betting 80% of his fund on one stock.
  • How he’s playing long-term trends in the energy sector.
  • Why he’s changed the way he invests.
  • Why he’s acutely wary of bank stocks.
  • What he learned from losing big on Sears, Fannie Mae, & Freddie Mac.
  • Why he views cash as a valuable form of “financial valium.” 
  • How he assesses the investment threat of global warming.
  • Why he operates as a lone wolf, not part of a team.
  • What he’s tried to teach his three children.
  • How he handles setbacks.

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

[00:00:03] William Green: Hi there. Welcome back to the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast. We have a real treat for you today. Our guest is a legendary investor named Bruce Berkowitz. He’s the Chief Investment Officer and chairman of Fairholme Funds, which is based in Miami, Florida. Bruce is best known as the manager of the Fairholme Fund, which has crushed the market since he launched it at the end of 1999.

[00:00:26] William Green: By the start of 2024, the fund had returned a total of 942%, beating the S&P 500 by 529 percentage points. That’s a huge margin of outperformance in a business where it’s extremely difficult to beat the indexes over long periods of time. To put it another way, if you’d invested a million dollars in Bruce’s fund at the start and had stuck with him through thick and thin over 23 years, your $1 million would’ve ballooned into more than 10 million.

[00:00:57] William Green: Like all of the great investors I’ve interviewed, Bruce has the courage and conviction to go his own way and defy conventional wisdom. In fact, the motto of his investment firm is ignore the crowd. As I wrote in my book, Richer, Wiser, Happier, the only way to beat the market is to diverge from the market.

[00:01:17] William Green: That’s a task best suited to people who are quite literally extraordinary, both intellectually and temperamentally. Bruce certainly fits that mold. He’s a true outlier with a remarkable willingness to make hugely aggressive, ultra concentrated bets on a tiny number of stocks that are often deeply out of favor.

[00:01:38] William Green: Personally, I love the fact that the best investors tend to be these free-thinking mavericks, who care more about being right and winning the game than about earning public approval. But the truth is that it’s terribly hard psychologically to go against the crowd as a fund manager because there are times where you are bound to make embarrassing mistakes or you’ll be out of sync with the market for several years and you can easily look like a hapless fool.

[00:02:05] William Green: We’ve seen this with everyone from Warren Buffett to Bill Miller and Bill Ackman, all of whom have suffered periods of poor performance when they were widely criticized and often ridiculed for supposedly losing their touch. For most investors, I think it’s just much easier to own index funds and not even attempt to beat the market.

[00:02:24] William Green: As you’ll hear in this conversation, Bruce Berkowitz has endured plenty of ups and downs on his rocky path to long-term outperformance. In his first decade as a fund manager, everything he touched, turned to gold. Morningstar named him as its domestic stock fund manager of the decade. Back in 2009, the following year, Fortune Magazine hailed him as arguably the top mutual fund manager on the planet.

[00:02:50] William Green: Money flooded in as you’d expect, and he hit a peak of $20 billion in assets under management. Then almost inevitably, he suffered a series of pretty brutal setbacks, including the bankruptcy of Sears, which was a major holding and a painful loss on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, when the government grabbed both companies and placed them in a conservatorship, basically vaporizing his investment.

[00:03:14] William Green: A lot of shareholders bailed out of Bruce’s Fund, unable to handle the volatility. As a result, he now manages about 1.4 billion, including hundreds of millions of his own money. Bruce, who grew up with pretty much nothing, is very philosophical about all of this. He keeps plugging away, making big, bold bets on resilient businesses that he expects to thrive over many years.

[00:03:39] William Green: Some people will be somewhat shocked to hear that his fund is now riding almost entirely on two stocks. Well, actually, that’s a slight exaggeration. In reality, about 80% of his fund is invested in just one stock. Yep. One stock. If you are anything like me, I’m sure you’ll be fascinated to hear more from the extraordinary Bruce Berkowitz. Thanks so much for joining us.

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