TIP204: MOMENTUM INVESTING

W/ DR. RICHARD SMITH

19 August 2018

On today’s episode, Preston and Stig talk to Dr. Richard Smith. Smith is an expert at momentum investing and is the founder of the popular investing website, TradeStops. During the discussion, Dr. Smith talks about the current market conditions and which industries might perform the best for the rest of 2018.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why you should use a moving average in your trading strategy.
  • Why there is price momentum is energy and small-cap stocks right now.
  • How to think about volatility and position size.
  • Why Warren Buffett is buying more stock in Apple and why you should use the same investing principle.

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Preston Pysh  0:02  

On today’s show, we bring back our good friend Dr. Richard Smith. Richard is an expert in momentum investing and is the Founder of TradeStops. He’s an alumnus of Berkeley and has used his background in statistics and mathematics to model normal and non-standard momentum trends in financial securities. 

Since Stig and I are avid users of his momentum service to augment our own value investing approach, we are always thrilled to have him on the show and talk about the current trends and ideas. Without further delay, here’s our interview with Dr. Richard Smith.

Intro  0:38  

You are listening to The Investor’s Podcast where we study the financial markets and read the books that influenced self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.

Preston Pysh  0:59  

All right, welcome to The Investor’s Podcast. I’m your host Preston Pysh and as usual, I’m accompanied by my co-host Stig Brodersen. As we said in the introduction, we have our good friend Richard Smith with us today. Richard, welcome to the show.

Richard Smith  1:11  

Hi, Preston and Stig. It is great to be here. I’m really excited to be with you. 

Preston Pysh  1:17  

Richard, Stig always wants to ask this first question, especially when we have people who were talking about current market conditions and kind of where they were seeing things going. So he cannot wait to ask you this question. Stig, go ahead and fire away.

Stig Brodersen  1:31  

I think quite a few listeners are already familiar with you, Richard, because you were on this show here back in late March. At the time, you were talking about which sectors you saw has strong momentum trend and you mentioned three. 

Now, I’m really putting you on the spot here, but you mentioned consumer discretionary, financials, and technology. So quite a few of us are curious to hear what has happened since. Did your prediction hold?

Richard Smith  2:00  

I think I got two out of three. Consumer discretionary and technology have both outperformed the S&P 500. Since we last talked, I think they went up about 13% and 12%, respectively. Financials have flatlined. They’re up about 4% versus about 10%, for the S&P 500. Two out of three ain’t bad, huh?

Stig Brodersen  2:22  

I don’t think it’s too bad. I’m going to put you on the spot here even more, because now that you had two out of three, I’ll ask another tricky question. We are in the middle of August 15 here. What kind of lucrative momentum trends are you seeing right now? I mean, it could either be in individual stocks or it could also be in sectors.

Richard Smith  2:47  

Yeah, well, there’s a couple of areas that I’m excited about. One is small cap stocks. One of the things I’ve been looking at is market capitalization. Back in kind of the early part of the year when we had the correction back in February or so, I got really worried about large cap and industrials. I was very struck by the fact of how well mid caps and even better small caps were doing. 

I think then that small caps have probably the strongest momentum in the market right now. There’s a kind of viable economic reason for why that might be the case. They are less threatened by all the trade war concerns that are going on around the world globally right now, with a little more domestic focus in the small cap stocks. 

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