Ross Gerber (04:09):
When you look at things like, oh, I’m worried about inflation. And then you say, “Well, we have a global supply market where anywhere I can go in the world, I can make something. And if it’s too expensive in one country, I just go to another country.” And there is no end for inexpensive labor in the global economy. So when you think about the main drivers of inflation like the cost of wages, the cost of energy, these are really the main drivers of inflation. There’s an unlimited supply.

Ross Gerber (04:38):
So the real challenge we’ve had and what the FED really has been fighting all this time is deflation. And the tools that they’re using now is simply printing as much money as possible. And literally at this point, giving it to people to spend, to hopefully create some sort of normal economy again, which obviously isn’t going to happen because you’re not creating it the way you should. So we’ve created a very, I would say, poor system of growth creation through money printing.

Trey Lockerbie (05:13):
Would you go as far as saying it’s unsustainable?

Ross Gerber (05:16):
No, it’s completely sustainable as long as rates stay low. So the question is whether or not this is a smart way to do things, not whether it’s sustainable. As long as they keep… I mean, if Powell’s like, “I’m not going to raise rates till 2023.” I’m like, “That’s so long from now. I don’t even know when that is.” So in my mind, the FED is never going to raise rates again, because even the discussion has pushed the markets down, commodities dropped like a stone, just on the discussion. Just on the discussion about the discussion, about the discussion about rates.

Ross Gerber (05:51):
So I think that’s really the risk. The risk is we go right back into a really slow-growth economy in the next two or three years. And we get back to what we had in ’15, ’16 with a slow economy, with wage and wealth inequality, and a lack of real growth drivers. And so really what the FED is doing right now is very smart. And we need to really push growth forward with the coronavirus and all the anti-growth things that are happening.

Trey Lockerbie (06:14):
What’s your opinion on the fact that everyone seems to hang on Powell’s every word in the market?

Ross Gerber (06:21):
Well, for a guy whose job is to actually do nothing for the next two years, he has the easiest job in America other than he can’t say anything that might even infer that rates might go higher. So his job is to say things that don’t spook people because he’s actually not going to do anything for a long time. If the FED stops buying so many bonds every month, that’s actually a good thing. That’s not a bad thing. We do not want the FED having to spend a trillion dollars a year buying bonds to have fake interest rates. It’s not good.

Ross Gerber (06:55):
So we have to get out of the mess that we’ve started, but that’s a good thing. And I think that’s really what the markets will adjust to is, that these are good things that are happening. We don’t want a world where the FED has to buy bonds every day, print money, give it to people and that’s the only way people will spend. That’s not a world that will last.

Trey Lockerbie (07:14):
Do you think that’s a realistic outcome? I mean, is there any sense of the US being on the same path as Japan and will eventually nationalize all of our stock market. And do you think we can actually pull out of this path?

Ross Gerber (07:26):
It’ll be a painful thing for a year when this goes on and it’ll be good. But you can’t expect the markets to go up forever. So you have a 2022 PE market that’s basically saying rates will be low forever and earnings are going up quite rapidly right now. So then if you think, well, maybe the rates can go to 1%. Maybe the FED can go to 1%. That’s what I think is the highest they can go. That world is still a great world for stocks, but the PE is going to go back to 18. Having an 18 PE stock market versus a 22 PE stock market is actually good.

Ross Gerber (08:00):
It’s just like real estate right now. Real estate isn’t worth what it’s trading at. But I got guys in my office refinancing at two and a half percent. They’ve refinanced five times these guys. Every month, these guys are refinancing my office, right? And so I’m sitting here thinking, I can’t do that every month to get more money. Obviously, it changes the growth equation, it changes a lot of things. So PE ratio has come down and the economy becomes more normal versus the government just giving free money away. So it’ll be a tough year, but it’s one year.

Trey Lockerbie (08:33):
That’s interesting. So you were actually a fan of Yellen coming in and saying, “Look, why are you raising rates? CPI is still low.” Money is just moving into assets. The velocity of the money is very low. That is creating more and more wealth inequality. Does that compound that one year of pain?

Ross Gerber (08:48):
The more positive we get now means more pain when you take the drugs away from the drug addict. It’s just a heroin addiction. The economy is addicted, and now we’re going to pull it away. And like heroin addicts, the hard way is you just pull it away and it’s a horrible period of time for a short-term, but then you get healthy. That would be the best thing, even though no politician is going to do that.

Ross Gerber (09:11):
So what we’ll probably do is get the methadone treatment, which is what Powell is trying to do, where he’s like, “I’ll still keep giving you some, I’m just going to take away a little at a time and this might take years to do, but we’re not going to shock the economy, fix it and make it better because we all got to get re-elected.” Because we have our system the way it is, nobody has the incentive to do the hard thing because you won’t get reelected.

Ross Gerber (09:34):
So if you remember back in the early ’80s, when Volcker took over, when there really was inflation, he raised rates to 15% and killed the economy in ’82, just killed it. But he knew he was going to kill inflation too. And within the eight years under Reagan, it ended up becoming an amazing economy. That’s what needs to be done but won’t be done because we don’t have those types of people.

Trey Lockerbie (09:59):
Kyle Bass just came out the other day and said something to the effect of inflation being closer to 12% right now. What is your take on where inflation actually is?

Ross Gerber (10:10):
Well, he’s talking about money printing. So if you look at how much money we’re actually printing relative to how much we have, it’s going up 10 to 12%. In theory, that’s the inflation rate of money and you can see that inflation in real estate. So real estate prices keep going up 10 to 12%, the stock market keeps going up 10 or 12%. Well, that’s really the dollars going down 10 to 12%, and asset values look 10 to 12% better. So inflation is relative to how you live.

Ross Gerber (10:38):
I have friends cutting their costs of living left and right because they live in cities like LA and New York and they’re saying, “Why am I spending so much money living here when I can move to San Luis Obispo, which is a great town. I have a lot of friends there now, and I can buy a house for a million five, bid up to a million eight, right? And a nice place to live. My kids go to school, in a public school now and my cost of living because of Zoom has dropped tremendously, okay? I don’t even need a car if I live there. Or I buy a Tesla and I don’t even have to pay for gas and no maintenance. So you can cut your cost of living very easily right now. So in my mind, there’s no inflation. Where’s the inflation?

Ross Gerber (11:19):
Well, if you actually look at the numbers, that’s gas prices. Well, that’s all fake. Used car, I don’t even know how that’s relevant just because the car companies can’t make enough cars because of the chip prices. That’s not really like inflation, right? So you know where there’s real inflation is in labor costs. The restaurants are all complaining they want to still pay $10 an hour. Well, unfortunately, those days are over Mr. Restauranteur. I’m sorry. This labor now costs more. This is how we solve wealth inequality. It’s by a higher minimum wage that people earn. And we’re seeing waiters here in LA getting paid $25 an hour, dishwashers $25 an hour. Some of the restaurant guys are complaining to me. I say, “You’ve been paying $10 an hour for 20 years. It’s going to cost you more.” But see, that’s not bad inflation because then those people have more money and they spend it. Restaurants are going to get more expensive. Don’t eat at a restaurant if you don’t want to pay $25 for an entrée.

Trey Lockerbie (12:15):
Going back to that inflation of the money itself and how it relates to real estate, do you think real estate is actually a good place to be?

Ross Gerber (12:22):
Yes and no. I mean, yes in the sense of it’s an inflation hedge. As long as the government keeps doing this, you make 10% a year, right? No. When they raise rates, real estate goes straight down just like the stock market. So if you know your asset is completely pumped up because of rates, you got to be a little concerned because at this point they can only go up. So I would say there are parts of the real estate market I really like but it’s not per se buying residential real estate thinking I’m going to make a lot of money because you’re not.

Trey Lockerbie (12:54):
That same sentiment would apply to stocks as well. Correct?

Ross Gerber (12:57):
Yeah. And it’s the same issue. So if I buy a stock that trades at, let’s say 35 PE, it’s going to go to a 25 PE so you better be ready. The way we look at it, the only thing I’m watching right now as an investor is the FED. So when you started the question, should we hang on to every word he says? I don’t really care what he says that much. What I want to see are the actions. And if they start taking actions and I’m not talking about bond stuff, that’s just going to create volatility. When the FED actually raises rates, right? Maybe that’s 2023, second or third rate hike, I’m out. I’ll call you in a year.

Trey Lockerbie (13:32):
But would you move to cash in that position or?

Ross Gerber (13:34):
Yeah. You just move to cash. I’ve done this long enough. When the FED starts really moving it’s just a matter of time. There used to be this old saying, it’s like, “After the third rate hike, you’re done.” And I think that still holds. So maybe he raises rates three times and I’m out. And so you move to cash. You just wait and you just be patient. It happens once a decade. It’ll happen this decade, for sure. We’ll have a bear market this decade. And it will be when the FED chooses. I think that’s years away.

Trey Lockerbie (14:02):
Let’s talk about Gerber Kawasaki a little bit. You have nine investment themes that you focus on and research. What research does GK rely on for placing its high conviction bets?

Ross Gerber (14:16):
Oh, that’s an interesting question or way to look at it. So I do things differently here. Most analysts focus so much on the financials and past performance of the company, which is important and I study fundamental analysis. I read lots of analysts’ reports that are so overly thorough over every metric of a company it’s unbelievable. And they literally pay people to figure out all this stuff. Much of which is valuable and much of which is overkill.

Ross Gerber (14:41):
The best way to learn about a company is by understanding the people involved. I’ve always looked at this business as, I’m betting on people, I’m betting on a team. Is this group of people really innovating? Are they really executing their business? I mean, a perfect example was Elon when we bet on Tesla and it was down and we were down millions at that point in 2018. And I went up and met with the team. That was what I did. I didn’t go read more research reports. I went to Tesla, I literally walked the entire factory. They opened it all up to me, which that was part of it. I was like, “I want to see everybody. I want to meet everybody.” And I saw incredible things there, just incredible things. And I was like, “Dude, I don’t care what anybody on Wall Street says, they don’t get it.”

Ross Gerber (15:32):
And we invested more money at that point. It was my biggest score in my career. I think we’ve made 150 million on Tesla for our clients and it was because of the people and not Elon. Elon was part of it, but he was also the problem just like he is now. So there are just great people at Tesla. And although one of them left recently, I’m really sad to see Jerome Guillen leave. So any company I’m investing in, I really want to know the people involved.

Ross Gerber (15:56):
Like Nvidia, we’re big investors Nvidia. We’re in a huge rally right now in Nvidia. I’ve been an investor for a long time in this company. It’s the management team there led by Jensen. They’re so great at what they do. They’re so smart and they execute their business so well. It’s just why I still own Apple, even though they haven’t innovated anything, is that Tim Cook just executes so well. They have such a good business. They make such good products, whether you like it or not. Even though it’s not an innovation story, it’s a consumer product story and they make just amazing consumer products and execute so well.

Ross Gerber (16:30):
So you have to know Tim Cook, you have to know the people. And that’s where I spend a lot of time is getting to know CEOs, staff, talking to employees. We have a lot of clients who work at companies. So are you happy or sad? Things like that.

Trey Lockerbie (16:45):
So that’s actually innovative but also more traditional than people might think. It’s reminding me of maybe how Buffett approaches investing more than others. And I know that you have a unique background, but you’ve also studied the greats and studied finance. How do you compare your style to someone like Buffett?

Ross Gerber (17:01):
I learned a lot from Buffett and I think it’s very similar. And I would say where I’m most different with Buffett is, I’m not wedded to valuations and the Graham and Dodd model of finance, which I think isn’t relevant anymore. So the way I look at the world and value isn’t created by hard assets. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. Hard assets have no value at all. And the value is all IP and intellect. So the value of your firm isn’t your desks in your building, it’s the people in it and that I think is where I differ from Buffett. But when you’re looking at buy and hold, own great businesses, look for cashflow increases, dividends, valuations do matter to me. I just do it differently.

Trey Lockerbie (17:47):
Going back to that theme of people, you mentioned very briefly, Jerome Guillen from Tesla, he’s now left, and I’ve heard you say that he’s their superstar. He’s their secret weapon of sorts. So that’s a big change. Has he secured Tesla the foundation, is there for them to continue on and grow without him? Or do you think that that’s a hit?

Ross Gerber (18:10):
No, I think there’ll be fine without them but… So I don’t like this philosophy and it’s not just Tesla, this happens at Netflix all the time too. It happens at tech companies and there’s this philosophy at tech companies that by firing or getting rid of some of the established players, it mixes it up and creates more innovation and opportunity. And there’s some truth to that. But it also is very disruptive to teams and very disruptive to their flow and to morale. And I don’t think tech people have as much EQ as they do IQ. And so they don’t value the happiness of their team and the emotional parts of managing a business as much as the technical.

Ross Gerber (18:52):
And so I think what happens at Tesla with Jerome is the same thing that’s happened when they launched the Model Three and they burn people out. It’s like the expectations are so high there. It’s crazy. He’s got these Texas factories, he’s got the China factory up. The guy works nonstop. He’s a relentless cost-cutter. He’s burned out and they get tired of it and they leave and he made 90 million. He sold his stock. He made 90 million and it’s a loss for Tesla, but I’m sure the young guys there have jumped in and they’re probably going to do a great job, but it doesn’t make me happy.

Trey Lockerbie (19:22):
And touching on what you said about not being too strung up on valuation. A lot of your approach reminds me of Cathie Wood’s approach, or maybe it’s the opposite, right? Because she’s had a lot of press, especially in the last year about being very outspoken out on social media, meeting with Tesla, being there. There’s a lot of similarities, but maybe not a lot of people know or understand that you’ve been on the cutting edge of the social media movement for a very long time.

Ross Gerber (19:50):
Oh yeah. We taught Ark their playbook. I mean, they came to us and was like, “Wow, you guys are doing all this stuff on Twitter.” And they started tweeting. I love Ark and the team there is super sharp. We’ve worked together during the Tesla days because there were only three of us that were supporting Tesla, us, Ark, and Ron Baron. And so we did have communications sharing information and our beliefs. So I’m a big fan, but we’re very different investors. They’re intellectuals there. So they hire the smartest people they can find. Going back to the IP value. Their IP value is huge, right? The research they do is phenomenally good and I read it all, but they’re not stock traders there. They’re not guys like me. It’s like, I’m a stock guy first. I grew up with a stock in my hand.

Ross Gerber (20:37):
I was thinking about the stock market when I was 15. I was getting newspapers and trading and my mom’s Smith Barney broker was like, “Why is this kid hassling me?” It was like $200 a trade. So I think that’s a skill set that they don’t have at Ark. And you can see that by the way, they bought Coinbase and DraftKings where they just pile into a stock because they liked the idea. But I’m like, “Dude, it’s just listed. It’s going to go down for sure.” Because we knew Coinbase people were selling. We knew who was selling. And it was like, “Why would you buy the first day?” And they piled in and they lost a bunch of money.

Ross Gerber (21:08):
Over time, it’s more like an index, where Coinbase I’m sure will be a good stock over time. But I would rather buy it today than when they bought it. But we’re stock traders. So we look at the markets differently. I’m closer to a Warren Buffett than I am a Cathie Wood as far as style.

Trey Lockerbie (21:25):
Well, let’s talk about your themes a little bit more. You’ve got nine investment themes. Maybe just give us a general overview of them. And we’ve talked about a couple of the stocks underneath. I want to dig in on those a little bit more, but just generally speaking, what’s the overview?

Ross Gerber (21:37):
My experience in life as an investor, I look at is decades. So this is my third decade now, coming on my third decade. So I’ve been doing this for 28 years and when I started it was the PC and I looked around and I said, “There’s going to be a PC on every desk.” And people were like, “Ah, you’re crazy Ross. Ah, these machines never work.” And I bought Dell and Gateway and AOL and that was my first big score in dotcom and Microsoft. And then it was cell phones and I was like, “One day Apple’s going to sell 200 million cell phones a year.” And people were like, “Ah, you’re crazy Ross.” Blah, blah, blah. And we rode the Apple train for a long time. And then it was social media and search and how we use the internet and now we’re entering a new stage.

Ross Gerber (22:20):
So it’s a new decade and there’s new themes. And my number one theme right now really is two themes but is climate change. And so right now we haven’t had rain for 14 months here in California. There’s no water. I’m scared to death of the fire season. We have no more time to solve this problem. And yet it’s incredibly profitable and economically beneficial to solve it, okay? The only reason we’re not is because the forces that be in the oil industry and the car industry, they don’t want this solution because it’s money over lives.

Ross Gerber (22:53):
So if you’re an Exxon it’s money over lives. It’s, “I need money today no matter how bad.” And now we’ve seen the boards being rebuked and changed because these companies have to adapt. Like NextEra Energy figured that out. They were Florida Power & Light and they’re like, “Oh, we’re a natural gas power company. We should go into renewables.” Now the largest renewable energy company in the world made us a lot of money, great investment. You got to love NextEra. And that’s what energy companies need to be doing.

Ross Gerber (23:21):
So we’re investing in climate for energy and transportation. And I think this is going to be probably the biggest driving theme for investors besides technology over the next decade. Why? Because we have no other choice. So when you talk about energy, a lot of that is renewable energy and storage. And then when you talk about transportation, it’s electric vehicles. So obviously starting with Tesla the king of all of this because they are energy and transportation and they are the innovative leaders here in both of these sectors. This is super rare. It’s like Apple and Microsoft being in the same company. So Tesla has unlimited potential and absolutely should be in your portfolio, no matter how crazy Elon can be.

Trey Lockerbie (24:06):
Not only are they a leader, I’ve heard you say that they have zero competition.

Ross Gerber (24:10):
Yeah. That was my thing this week. When you really assess, especially on the EV side, who’s going to scale EV production of 500,000 units the soonest and compete with Tesla? And there’s nobody that can do that. There’s nobody. So I think they’ve got the Ford Mach-E might do 30 or 40,000 a year. I don’t think they can make 100,000 of these. So everybody can make an EV. Everybody can have Magna produce an EV or ask Foxconn, but nobody’s done it in scale and I know how hard it is.

Ross Gerber (24:41):
See that’s the difference between me and everybody else. I know how hard it is to scale EV production because I saw how hard it was myself at the time. And it almost killed Elon. I don’t think these CEOs have the wherewithal of Elon to do this and I think it’s going to be really hard to scale with that. It’s because of cell technology and batteries, that’s what makes it hard. And that’s where the opportunity is and where we’re investing millions of millions of dollars every day is in battery technology, commodities around the battery technology, and the processes around making batteries.

Trey Lockerbie (25:16):
Well, just while we’re on that subject, again, Tesla comes to mind, right? They’re now a battery manufacturer, but I am just curious if you had to choose between investing in Tesla or investing in the commodity, something like lithium. I know you have a position, I think in LIT, which one would you choose?

Ross Gerber (25:34):
When I went up for battery day, I was lucky enough to ask a question. And my question was, if Tesla succeeds at everything it does, what impact will this have on climate? Will it have a measurable impact? And he basically danced around the question and said, “No. Basically, if I achieve every goal in my life, it’s barely a tip in the iceberg for what needs to be done. And that the purpose of Tesla is to push the advent of sustainable transportation, not solve climate change.” Every Gigafactory, there’s 10 of them open. They’re making 20 million cars a year. It’s just the tip of the iceberg of what needs to be done.

Ross Gerber (26:10):
Then he puts me in his cell factory. So I’m one of the few humans that’s actually been at the new Tesla cell factory. And I walked that entire floor. This was really cool. This was kind of like going on a spaceship. It’s like, they all wear spacesuits in there. And I didn’t know much about batteries at the time. And then I started working with a company called Benchmark Minerals, which are some of the leaders in getting lithium and other supplies for battery companies. So I have access to the smartest people in batteries.

Ross Gerber (26:38):
So they started educating me. I go, “I can’t go up to battery day and not know when an anode and cathode and all this stuff does.” So they’re educating me. This isn’t my thing. I’m a finance guy, I’m a music guy, but oh, so Tesla reinvented the cell, the battery cell. And when this works for real, it’s the biggest game-changing technology there is. So all the other companies need battery cells and Tesla isn’t going to supply any of them to anybody else because they need everyone they make.

Ross Gerber (27:07):
The demand for the three battery companies that exist today, maybe a fourth, there’s a private company called Northvolt, which I wish I could invest in, which is a fourth battery company. But there’s basically three battery companies. Then there’s a few main lithium companies. And basically, these companies dominate the battery market and I think that this opportunity is as good or better than Tesla. The only reason I don’t think it’s better than Tesla is I think Tesla will execute better than these battery companies and the GMs of the world. So right now they’re equal in my portfolios. So if I have a 5% position in Tesla, I have a 5% position in lithium, LIT.

Trey Lockerbie (27:45):
Climate change is one of the main themes. I think you mentioned there’s two really major ones. So what’s the other one?

Ross Gerber (27:50):
Yeah. And then the second is technology frontiers they say. Or what I like to say AI and FinTech. So the way Bitcoin and the way AI is changing technology, we’re making strategic investments in those areas. So tech will always be a main sector.

Trey Lockerbie (28:07):
With that in mind, something like Nvidia might almost straddle the two themes together.

Ross Gerber (28:12):
Right. Nvidia will be the top holding in my ETF.

Trey Lockerbie (28:16):
In your ETF. Okay. I also have a position at Nvidia. So I was curious to ask you about that because it’s had a great run. At the time of this recording, it’s sitting around $750 a share. By my rough analysis, it appears to be trading at a fair value now. But that said, I’ve heard you say that the demand for their chips is essentially infinite. How are you looking at Nvidia and how much further do you think it could run from here?

Ross Gerber (28:40):
Well, they’re constrained and you can only make so many chips a year so that would be the downside, right? They’re actually throttling back chips so that people don’t use them for crypto. So they’re not even close to meeting demand because they serve every market that’s booming. So it started with gaming. That’s when I originally got involved with Nvidia because I’m a gamer. So I’ve owned Nvidia for a long time. Well, before they got into the autonomous driving game, which was really the second big driver of our investment in Nvidia was their autonomous driving chips, which was what Tesla was using before they developed their own chips.

Ross Gerber (29:15):
So you had Mobileye and you had Nvidia. And Mobileye got bought out. And then we were like, “Oh Nvidia, yeah, they make gaming chips. But autonomous driving chips is every car is going to use this, not just Tesla.” And then Tesla made their own. And I was like, “That’s fine for Tesla, but everybody still needs Nvidia chips and they’re great.” And then crypto came around and then the demand for Nvidia chips was huge. And then when crypto died, they had that overhang and Nvidia was down 50%. It was a great opportunity to buy Nvidia back then because we knew crypto was just either was going to come back or some other business would grow.

Ross Gerber (29:51):
So then there was AI in data centers, right? So then that grew, so they’re in that business too, right? I’m like, “What area are they in that isn’t phenomenal?” So every business they’re in is growing like crazy. The demand is well greater than supply. I know gamers in back alleys with cash trying to get a new Nvidia chip. I mean, seriously, I’m not kidding. With cash, I’ll buy a chip for you for 1,000 bucks.

Trey Lockerbie (30:17):
Is that a risk factor though? You mentioned Tesla making their own chips. They’re not the only ones. I mean, Google has now started making their own chips. Facebook is making… I mean, all the big tech companies.

Ross Gerber (30:26):
This is an IP thing. So I’m not going to tell you the IP at Google isn’t good enough or this or that. But I think Google has proven that they’re not good at doing other things than Google. So you got YouTube, which is the best asset Google has. Why are you worried about chips? You’re not going to make great chips. Apple has made some great chips, but that’s in their hardware expertise. Google is not a hardware company. They don’t make hardware well. They just don’t. So to me, chipmakers are very focused, very capital intensive, very difficult business and Nvidia in a way has a monopoly.

Trey Lockerbie (30:59):
A few other industries you seem to keep a pretty close eye on would be what I would call vice-type industries, right?

Ross Gerber (31:05):
Yeah.

Trey Lockerbie (31:05):
So gambling, marijuana, and even psychedelics, which I am especially interested in and want to talk about. My initial question to kick this off would be something like, what would be your first draft pick for all three of those industries?

Ross Gerber (31:17):
Cannabis is one of my favorite industries. So what we’ve learned over the last 30 years is that pot is a harmless drug. It does not have any severe effects on people and has lots of benefits. Most of the benefits are mild, but they’re benefits. And when you look at a society that allows drinking and cigarettes and Advil, it seems just completely hypocritical. So pot laws are Jim Crow laws. There’s no logic behind them other than to jail African-American and minorities, immigrants. It’s always been used that way. It’s one of the most wrong Jim Crow laws ever. And they’ve used it in countries all around the world for oppression.

Ross Gerber (31:51):
And so if you look at all these young kids in jail for pot, I would think the vast majority of them are African-American and it’s time this stops. It’s just got to stop, okay? So we’ve got Juneteenth now as a holiday, that’s a step. That’s nice but we got to get these kids out of prison for doing something that is ridiculous, right? And it ruins people’s lives. You get a pot conviction and you’re a white kid, you get it expunged in six months. But if you’re an African-American kid and don’t have the means, you have to live with this on your record forever and you can’t get a job.

Ross Gerber (32:20):
Now, cannabis is legal. They just signed Connecticut again. So the fact that the Federal government’s still dragging its feet, is just absurd now. It’s just beyond absurd. So in cannabis, we like several companies that are very well run. All of them trade only in Canada because of the absurdity of the law. But I think the best three companies in cannabis are Terrascend with Jason Wild. We’ve got Trulieve with Kim Rivers. Who’s just amazing. And then you’ve got Green Thumb with Ben, Ben Kovlar who’s also amazing. So those three companies were heavily invested in as much as we can because we have lots of limitations where we can buy these stocks still.

Ross Gerber (33:00):
But once the ridiculous laws change and these stocks can list on the New York Stock Exchange, they will double in value for sure. But they’re well-run businesses, profitable businesses, it’s a great business. It’s just a great business. So we just have a very high allocation to cannabis at this time. That being said, I think online gambling is like cannabis, where so many people do it and they just do it illegally through these Bermuda apps or whatever. So I do think gambling is worse than cannabis actually. I look at it as entertainment. You need to be responsible and I think there need to be limits in the apps to prevent people from blowing all their money, but we’re big investors in MGM, that’s our number one pick in the space.

Ross Gerber (33:45):
Why? Because we love Vegas. It’s a reopening play. It’s such a well-run business, great management. I’ve been investing in Vegas since ’89 when they opened the Mirage and I still own stock in the Mirage. So MGM is really the leader. Wynn used to be a great business and it’s gone down the tubes since they got rid of Steve Wynn. Blackstone owns the rest of the hotels in Vegas, but they don’t have an online business. So MGM is in a great spot. It’s an international business. Online gambling is going state to state, to state. It’s easy money. I do DraftKings, I bet on Phil Mickelson and Jon Rahm. Or whatever for the US Open, I put 10 bucks in, it’s fun. It makes it more interesting to watch the games. So I’m all for it. It’s kind of a merger of sports, gambling, and entertainment in casinos. So we like that business and I think MGM is the clear winner here.

Ross Gerber (34:37):
And then psychedelics, we haven’t taken a position in yet because mostly it’s super early. The companies are in pre-stage, non-profitable. I have mixed feelings about psychedelics because in my experience with them in my life I saw negative outcomes too not just positive outcomes. Although for me, it was a positive outcome. It’s not for everybody.

Ross Gerber (35:01):
So I think there’s a place for psychotherapy and I think for a lot of people if they tripped, it would be really illuminating for them and maybe very helpful, but it’s also not as open and shut of a thing.

Trey Lockerbie (35:14):
Given that we talked about all these different companies in different industries. It brings up the question around portfolio construction, diversification, et cetera. So what is your… I guess you’re launching an ETF. We could talk about that and how many positions are going to be in that ETF, how diversified it is across different industries, maybe just what’s your overall philosophy on that.

Ross Gerber (35:35):
So portfolio construction for clients is a little bit different than the ETF because the ETFs equity only. It’s really meant to replicate the equity exposure we have for our clients so that people in the general public can take advantage of our stock picking and add a core diversified growth portfolio to their funds. Now you got a lot of guys out there who own Tesla and GameStop and some crypto. And I’m like, “That’s great. And that might work out well, but you’re going to have a very volatile ride here.” Maybe you need a core growth portfolio to add your IRA or something because you don’t want to just take risks with everything you have.

Ross Gerber (36:10):
What we’re saying is we’re trying to earn a very good return for clients better than the market, but without taking a ridiculous level of risk, like an Ark fund, for example. For example, we’re up on the year while Ark’s down. Why? Because we don’t just own innovation. One of the sectors we own is in the pet care industry. I’m a big investor in the pet care industry. People have lost their minds over pets. I mean, the dog is king in most people’s houses. So we’re investors. Actually, I’ve never lost money in the pet business. So that’s one of our sectors. It’s not as busy as technology, but it’s one of our nine themes that pets live like humans now, we got a profit off of it.

Ross Gerber (36:46):
Portfolio construction for us is very much based around risk because what we think is in bull markets, everybody wants to take more risks than they’re comfortable with. And then when the bear market comes, they cry. So we’re generally more conservative building portfolios for people than what they per se want, but then they’re really happy about it.

Ross Gerber (37:06):
The way we limit risk is through diversification into different asset classes, as well as using bonds and other types of assets to create stability, depending on how much up and down you want. So what we’re really trying to do is determine how much volatility a client’s comfortable with. So like for the ETF, it’s 100% stocks and it’s going to be about 40 stocks right now I’m looking at. The mandate is between 21 and 50 stocks. So it’s concentrated. So you’ll get the most volatility obviously if you just own our top 40 stocks. But maybe you’re a little bit more conservative. So you could buy a mini-bond fund for 20% of your assets and our ETF for 80.

Ross Gerber (37:45):
That construction is very much a personal thing. Some of my clients are young and they’re super conservative. Some of my clients are old and they’re really aggressive. So it’s just, every person is different and that’s where meeting with a financial planner and working on an investment strategy for you is much more important than per se portfolio construction. Because unless I know what you really want out of your portfolio because we can all fantasize about the upside, but what matters is when COVID hits and we’re down 35%, do you want to be down 35% or do you want to be down 20%? And that’s really where we look at risk tolerance.

Trey Lockerbie (38:23):
I’m glad you brought up financial advisory because this seems to be an industry that is almost the most right for disruption or at least the industry that most people are trying to disrupt from the outside looking in. And just in the last year, you’ve seen this tidal wave of main street retail investors going on Robinhood, taking their investments into their own hands. I mean, you said earlier that you’re a little bit anti-establishment. So I get the sense that some part of you is rooting this on. But also I imagine you see inherent risks there as well.

Ross Gerber (38:56):
Well, I hate Robinhood because they’re trying to get people to take risks but I work with public.com and I have no financial relationship with them, but I love their app. See that’s why I started the ETF. Not everybody wants a financial advisor. Not everybody wants them. Now, I think everybody should have one. And my firm will work with anybody. That’s what we do. But not everybody wants that. I think it’s 60% of people do it themselves. And we wanted to create a way for them to invest with us. And so platforms like public, which is like Robinhood, and you can buy and sell stocks on it, but they added a Twitter feed for stocks. And they added a Clubhouse within one app. And so they’re really trying to educate people. It’s like Acorns and all these companies. Really trying to educate you, not just get you to burn your savings, YOLO in options.

Ross Gerber (39:43):
This whole YOLO, I’m going to put all my money into something and fucking cash out. That’s the dumbest philosophy in the world because you’re going to lose eventually. I can show you how to build wealth over time. It’s not as sexy, but it works every time. I’ve been doing it for 30 years and it takes time, but you’ll build a solid level of wealth over a decade and your life will never be the same. You’ll be so much happier with financial security. I don’t understand the desire for financial insecurity. I sleep well every night. If I’m not sleeping well, you shouldn’t be up going, “Oh my God, if GameStop goes down tomorrow, I’m going to get wiped out.”

Trey Lockerbie (40:21):
It’s not just YOLOing your life savings. It’s YOLOing your life savings and margin, right? Which Robinhood offers.

Ross Gerber (40:26):
Right. Totally. So that’s why I don’t like a Robinhood is A, they lie. Their trades aren’t free. B, they try to encourage people to do things that are bad for them. And C, they don’t care. If you lose, they’re happy. They don’t care. See for me, I care. None of my clients lose. Market’s gone up for years and years and years, nobody should be losing. You see what I’m saying? In a way, I have the easiest job in the world. You buy Microsoft, then you go home.

Ross Gerber (40:51):
So what’s happening now has been great for my business. And I think is great for people, which is for the first time, since I was a kid and started in the business, people care about the stock market. Again, my musician friends are asking me about stocks, shocking. My high school friends want to talk about stocks, which they would avoid like cancer before. I go anywhere and people are talking about stocks. And for me, it’s a super exciting time because I’ve been toiling in obscurity for the last 28 years since dot-com and it’s super fun to see so many people excited about investing. Because that is the key to having something in this world.

Ross Gerber (41:30):
And you talk about wealth inequality. It’s not really that it’s rigged against you, it’s just you don’t know how to use it to rig it for you and that’s the stock market. That’s all these rich people have that you don’t have is, they know to invest in the stock market. And that’s always been available to people but not the information. And now with the internet, the information is there. I’m the only firm that you can work with and get financial advice. There’s no other high-quality financial advisors that will meet with somebody with $5,000.

Ross Gerber (42:01):
My advisors now they’re like, “We should have minimums. We’re getting exhausted.” I go, “We will not have minimums at this firm. If you’re too freaking tired, I’ll hire another guy.” We just hired three more guys and girls because it’s just like, the demand is huge for financial advice And it’s really hard to get when you’re young. So there’s lots of solutions now. People are now taking these opportunities and it’s great because that’s what’s going to solve wealth inequality is that everybody needs to participate in the stock market.

Trey Lockerbie (42:28):
A couple more things I want to touch on because there’s a difference here with what you’re describing against other, I would say more traditional wealth management firms. And my quick story on this is, while I was really early days in the company I run now, I had interest in that space and I actually interviewed one of the top wealth management firms. And two things happened. One, it was very apparent that my resume, the only thing that mattered that they asked me was how many wealthy people do you know?

Ross Gerber (42:54):
Right. Totally.

Trey Lockerbie (42:55):
And then the second thing was, here are the products that you’re going to sell to these people. So how is GK different in that way?

Ross Gerber (43:04):
It’s exactly the opposite. So we say, how many people do you know? Because we can work with anybody. Now fortunately for us, we got tons of leads every day. So whether you know people or not, it doesn’t matter. We just have so much demand. That’s pretty rare in our business. And it’s taken me a while to get to that stage, 11 years here, but we’re there. So for our people, they have a huge advantage working at my firm because we just have this flow of clients. We need help. But really truthfully, if you come work at our firm, we’re like, “Who do you know? You can work with anybody. What’s a great niche for you?” Maybe you came from technology, so you’re good with tech people or you’re an engineer. So what we really try to do is build a marketing plan around those people.

Ross Gerber (43:45):
Secondly, we don’t have a product up. Well now we have kind of a product with our ETF but it’s not our ETF. I’m on an advisor shares ETF. But we’re advisors. So we get paid based off the amount of money we manage. In the old days, and still, for most brokerage firms, they get paid on commission. So if you go to a UBS broker, the clients I was just seeing before this have a huge account at UBS and it’s a brokerage account and they get charged a $200 commission for every trade or something, and they’re done with these people. And they’re being sold products. That’s how these firms, they develop products and then they sell them to their wealthy clients and that’s how they make money. And it’s a complete conflict of interest.

Ross Gerber (44:24):
When you’re a fiduciary investment advisor like myself or any of the independent investment advisors, we have an obligation to our clients. So we don’t have products to sell, we don’t create products to sell. Everything must be disclosed, all conflicts disclosed. We get paid based off the amount of money we manage. So if I make my client’s money and they add to their accounts, I make more money. So it’s in my incentive to see my clients make money, not to get commissions on products.

Ross Gerber (44:53):
What’s really happened in our industry is we’ve gone from brokerage commission sales. They probably were like, “How good are you on the phone? How good of a salesperson are you?” That’s UBS and Merrill Lynch. And basically, now they just sell loans, to be honest. They’re just like, “Oh, I’ll get you a mortgage. You got to move your money over though. Sorry, can’t get a mortgage unless you move your money over.” It’s so freaking corrupt, right? So that’s how brokers work.

Ross Gerber (45:18):
And then this whole investment thing called fiduciary Registered Investment Advisors. And it started in the late 2000s. And we were originally, in the old days, we only could sell on commission. Mutual funds and we get paid a commission. So when advisory came out, I loved it. I was like, “This is a way better way.” And so I started doing that in 2003. I was one of the first people around doing it. And I was managing a big company of advisors then. So I could afford to make a lot less money because you make a lot less money charging a fee versus a commission. You just make a lot less money, but you get paid overtime.

Ross Gerber (45:55):
So I started this. And so when the financial crisis happened and I started GK, the idea from the beginning was, we aren’t going to have commissions. We’re going to go away from commissions, be advisory only, fiduciary, do what’s best for the clients, no products, build our assets. We started with, I think it was like 30 million in assets under management and now we’re at 1.9 billion. So it’s been a good ride and that’s what clients want. They want to just pay a fee for services and not be preyed on with products.

Trey Lockerbie (46:27):
In the ETF you’re involved in, that’s going live when?

Ross Gerber (46:32):
July 2nd. You can find the information on advisorshares.com and they are the ETF provider. I am the portfolio manager. They asked me to do it for this fund. It’s an actively managed multi-thematic fund. I realized that there was a huge tax advantage with ETFs. There’s a huge tax advantage. So I can buy and sell stocks in the ETF. But those clients of the ETF won’t have to pay capital gains taxes because it’s in an ETF structure. You only pay taxes on an ETF when you buy and sell the ETF itself.

Ross Gerber (47:04):
Well, every year I got to sell some of my Tesla, I got to sell some of my Apple. I buy some new ideas. I create taxes. Well, now I can do this for my clients and not have any tax consequences. So the ETF was created mostly around passive investments and that’s why it has this tax advantage. And these are the first active funds. I think I’m one of the only active managers in the world that have figured this out, that I can trade all day with these things and not create taxes for my clients. Huge advantage of ETFs. All ETFs have this, but none of them trade. None of them trade within the ETF. Maybe they rebalance once a month or once a quarter. Well, this is a huge plus. So it launches July 2nd on the New York Stock Exchange. The symbol is going to be GK and you can find all the information about it and the perspectives at advisorshares.com.

Trey Lockerbie (47:54):
Given that you and I have similar backgrounds coming from music and finding ourselves in this finance industry. I have to ask because I had talked to Tom Gayner recently at Markel Corp. And he had this quote where he said, “In order to be a great investor, you also have to be able to write a poem.” And it reminds me of music a lot in that way. I’m curious, is there anything from that industry or that background of yours that you bring to the table or you find yourself finding as an advantage in some way?

Ross Gerber (48:21):
Well, I mean, and I’m sure you know that many great investors have music backgrounds. You have let’s say a chord structure and then you have solos over these chord structures and it’s completely improvisational. I’m an improvisational musician, unlike most musicians. So I play by ear and I can hear music and I can play it and I can play with anybody. So it’s really fun. And I have both educations by ear and by school.

Ross Gerber (48:45):
So what I think is that investing is very similar. Things constantly change. So you have the chords of the song, but you’re playing solo around these chords and as the changes happen, you have to be able to play around these changes. And that flexibility is so key to being a good investor. Where most investors fail is in rigidity and thought. Where they believe a certain thing and they’re just stuck and wedded in that thought process and they ride that to the end. It’s kind of like the Peter Schiff stuff. He’s the gold guy, he’ll always be the gold guy. He will never not be the gold guy. It doesn’t matter what you say to Peter.

Ross Gerber (49:21):
And I know Peter. I’ve met him. I hung out with him. I think he’s a smart guy. I like him. I have nothing against him, but I’m like, “Peter, I get your shtick. You’re the gold guy. But those days have come and gone. Gold is never going to be that exciting Peter. Get in on Bitcoin.” And he just doesn’t want to admit that Bitcoin is the new gold. And if he was smart, that’s what he would have done. He wouldn’t be so wedded to gold. And he’d realized that Bitcoin is digital goal. That’s all it is. He should be the biggest Bitcoin guy but he’s so wedded in his thought process that he can’t open his mind to it. And that’s where the psychedelic therapy might be beneficial to Peter.

Ross Gerber (50:01):
And that’s where jazz music and being a musician, I think gives, if you’re an investor too, gives you that open-mindedness that you need, especially when you’re wrong. I’m wrong. I wish I could say I’m always right. I’m certainly not. And I try to limit my losses. That’s a very important rule of investors. Sell your losers. Do you have losers in your portfolio right now? Just sell them. They’re not going to turn into winners. And I thought Funko toys was going to do well. It didn’t do well. And we lose money, we sold, they misled us. We lost. So you move on.

Ross Gerber (50:37):
But you’ve got to be flexible that your ideas might be wrong. You’ve got to be willing to play with the other musicians. So I don’t play. I’m not a solo artist. I play with a band and I have a band here of other people, other advisors, other analysts, all not only in the firm, outside the firm. And I play with them too. So I want to listen to what they’re playing and how that affects what I’m playing. And that’s very important in the investment process is listening to everybody else around you’s ideas, including the short-sellers, including the people… See a lot of people don’t know that I have relationships with certain short-sellers and I read and listen to their stuff and they know I do. And I respect their work, even if I disagree, but I read it because why would I not want to see the worst things that people can come up with?

Ross Gerber (51:32):
So if I’m DraftKings, so I don’t own stock in DraftKings, I read Hindenburg. They do good stuff. They get sued if they’re wrong. So far they’ve been pretty right on a lot of stocks that they are against. I’ve had my issues with the way DraftKings runs their business. They put out a report like this. You can’t just discount it. You got to read it. You got to read it. You might not like what it is. Well, it’s online gambling. It wouldn’t surprise me if part of that business is shady. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. So why is everybody, “Oh, this can’t be right. Buy more DraftKings.” That’s not really listening to the song. So listen to the music. Maybe you’re going to learn something you might not like. You got to be open-minded to it. You got to be flexible, you got to move on. You push a button, you sell, you move on.

Trey Lockerbie (52:16):
It reminds me of the Charlie Munger quote about knowing the counterargument better than your own argument.

Ross Gerber (52:23):
Oh, for sure. For sure. In fact, I appreciated these relationships with short sellers that were real short sellers, not these goofballs on Twitter. And they wanted to know what I was thinking actually too, which was very interesting. And that’s why we were sharing information. They were very concerned about me because they were like, “What does this guy know that we don’t know?” And I was really concerned about them. And I’m like, “What do these guys know that I’m missing?” And in the end, I was right. So it was good.

Trey Lockerbie (52:50):
And I think you’re referring to Tesla mostly on that one.

Ross Gerber (52:52):
Yeah. That was the biggest battle I’ve had to fight in my career. Way bigger than I ever planned. And it was also the most profitable thing I’ve done. So it worked out.

Trey Lockerbie (53:05):
Well, Ross, I really admire what you’re doing with GK-

Ross Gerber (53:08):
Thank you.

Trey Lockerbie (53:08):
…and everything else. I want to give you an opportunity to hand off to our audience where they can learn more about Gerber Kawasaki, where they can find you on Twitter. Anything else you want to share.

Ross Gerber (53:17):
Yeah. You can always find us at our website gerberkawasaki.com, or you can find our ETF at advisorshares.com as well as you can follow me on Twitter at Gerber Kawasaki. We also have an Instagram page and a YouTube page. We put out a lot of content on YouTube at Gerber Kawasaki for all different types of investors. We’ve got a bunch of different shows, young people. We have a woman of wealth show now. We’ve got all kinds of stuff going on in YouTube too. So we’re really focused on educating and empowering people to change their lives in the positive and building a financial future. So if you’re looking to get financial advice, to have more confidence in the decisions you’re making with regard to your finances, we work with anybody and everybody, as long as you’re a good person and so feel free to reach out.

Trey Lockerbie (54:01):
Fantastic. Well, Ross, this was a real pleasure. I can’t wait to do this again sometime soon and you’re just down the street. So maybe as things opened up here, which they just kind of did.

Ross Gerber (54:09):
We’re open, man. I’m going to parties.

Trey Lockerbie (54:11):
Come on down. We’ll do this in person next time.

Ross Gerber (54:13):
Yeah. We’re all vaxxed up and ready to go. So get vaccinated.

Trey Lockerbie (54:15):
Thanks again for your time. Let’s do it again.

Ross Gerber (54:18):
Yeah. Thank you.

Trey Lockerbie (54:20):
All right. That’s all we had for you this week. If you’re loving the show, definitely go ahead and follow us on your favorite podcast app so you get these episodes every week and if you haven’t already done so, be sure to check out the tools and courses we have on theinvestorspodcast.com or just Google TIP Finance. It’ll come right up. And lastly, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter at Trey Lockerbie. Give me your feedback. I’m really loving it. It’s been very helpful. I want to continue to make the show the best it can possibly be. And with that, we’ll see you again next time.

Outro (54:49):
Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to subscribe to millennial investing by The Investor’s Podcast Network and learn how to achieve financial independence. To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.