TIP353: THE BEST PERFORMING ASSET IS NOT BITCOIN
W/ MARIN KATUSA
12 June 2021
In this week’s episode, Trey Lockerbie sits down with NYT best-selling author and investor, Marin Katusa. Marin is a contrarian value investor who specializes in gold, uranium, rare earth, and most recently, carbon credits.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
- How we should view the recent performance of gold and silver, as inflation starts to rise
- How uranium is an asymmetric opportunity but comes with a lot of nuances
- How Carbon Credits are the best-performing asset class of the last 3 years and why Marin thinks the opportunity is over $16 trillion
- How America’s golden age is still ahead
TRANSCRIPT
Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.
Trey Lockerbie (00:00:02):
On today’s episode, we welcome back New York Times bestselling author and investor, Marin Katusa. Marin is a contrarian value investor who specializes in gold, uranium, rare earths, and most recently, carbon credits. In this episode, we cover how we should view the recent performance of gold and silver as inflation starts to rise, how uranium is an asymmetric opportunity but comes with a lot of nuance, how carbon credits are the best performing asset of the last three years, and why Marin thinks that this opportunity is worth over $16 trillion. And ultimately we cover how America’s golden age is still ahead. Marin is a wealth of knowledge and experience and I learned a ton from this very fun and wide-ranging discussion. So without further ado, sit back and enjoy my chat with Marin Katusa.
Intro (00:00:55):
You are listening to The Investor’s Podcast where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.
Trey Lockerbie (00:01:15):
Welcome to The Investor’s Podcast. I’m your host, Trey Lockerbie. And today I’m super excited to welcome back to the show a fan favorite, Marin Katusa. Marin, always a pleasure. Thanks for coming on the show.
Marin Katusa (00:01:27):
That’s my pleasure.
Trey Lockerbie (00:01:29):
One of the reasons we love having you on Marin is that there’s always just a wealth of knowledge that you bring to the table, and it’s always such a wide-ranging discussion, and today’s no different. There’s a lot to cover and I want to go ahead and dig right in. One of the most interesting headlines I think we’ve seen recently is the US Bureau of Labor statistics releasing some new CPI numbers, and the CPI has risen 4.2% over the last year. So, given your knowledge in the gold and silver markets, I just wanted to take the opportunity to ask you about what your stance on those metals looks like right now and if you’ve been expecting maybe better performance out of them lately.
Marin Katusa (00:02:07):
As my subscribers know, when you have such a lockdown and so much pent-up demand, you look at what’s going on with copper, with lumber. So many sectors are hitting it and people are going, well, what about gold and silver? I remind everyone that $1,800 gold is a phenomenal price for me and the company that I’m heavily invested in. And I get it. People want the two-handle because the four-handle and CPI came and 2000 is better than 1800. I agree. But when your all-in sustaining cost is 8,900 and you have 100% margins, that’s a pretty good business to be in. So yes, the investors want Bitcoin-like returns and they want that action.
Marin Katusa (00:02:54):
But mining is the… Remember, gold is the oldest currency in the world. So it moves a lot slower and it’s much more global. There’s 186 mines, for example, with over 2 million ounces. It’s everywhere and it’s a big business. Same as silver. Silver’s not as much of a currency metal like gold is because over half is used for the industrial uses. So it’s got one foot in the industrial sector and one foot in the precious metal. So you would expect silver to be doing better than it is. But from a gold perspective, it’s fantastic where it is from a free cash flow standpoint if you’re invested in the right producers.
Trey Lockerbie (00:03:34):
And speaking of the right producers, one of the most interesting things I think we’ve seen in the last year was Berkshire Hathaway taking a position in Barrick’s Gold, but then also selling it shortly thereafter. Do you have any insight as to that company in particular and what that turnaround looked like for them?
Marin Katusa (00:03:51):
Yeah. Look, Barrick is run by Mark Bristow. He’s kind of a big personality in the business. And when that happened, I said, “Guys, Warren Buffett is just a businessman. He’s buying value and he’s going to sell it when he catches that value.” The gold investors used that as here it is. We finally got Warren Buffett. And Warren Buffett does what Warren Buffett does, which is make money. And that’s what I got to remind everyone getting in the gold world. And I get so much hate, Trey, from this. People are like, you don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that Goldman Sachs and the fed are suppressing gold. Guys, it’s just a business, just like anything else. And it’s about margins and it’s about free cash flow and it’s about dividends.
Marin Katusa (00:04:35):
Do I own Barrick? No, I think there’s better places to be. Do I think it’s a great company? Yes. But that’s not what I do. They’re the biggest gold market cap, them and Newmont, number one and two battling for that throne. But I think there’s easier places to make money that are cheaper because if you’re the big ETFs that want that 5% exposure to gold, Barrick and Newmont are the easy way to play it. Franco-Nevada, the world’s largest precious metal royalty and streaming company, and Silver Wheaton, they’re now called Wheaton Precious. Those are the easy ways to play. So they carry a higher premium than the not-so-known multi-billion dollar market cap companies that are on their way to produce a million ounces. That’s the sweet spot where the value investor should be looking at just before the big money comes in and starts overvaluing the deals.
Marin Katusa (00:05:28):
So I look at it as a slow and steady strategy. $2,000 gold would be great. I do believe we’ll see it. For my evaluations, Trey, I’ve published this for years, I use $1,400 gold for my metrics and a $1,400 gold, I want to see three-year paybacks. There’s traditional value metrics used in the mining world, but I haven’t seen a single research report in the world valuing new hidden costs that are going to come across aboard. And not just from increasing taxes and government take that you’re going to see in non-swap, negative swap line nations. You’re hearing the rumblings in Peru. There’s going to be more government hate. Chile is rattling the cages in the copper world. Well, 28% of the world’s copper comes from Chile. South America is very key to a lot of these metals and the market is kind of priming it up and there’s no shortage.
Marin Katusa (00:06:21):
I was involved in financing from day one on Canada’s third largest copper producer. It’s the third largest mine in Canada. I know the copper markets really well. There’s absolutely no shortage of copper at four and a half dollars. There’s a timeline to get it online with permitting and the cost, which means the costs will rise. We’re in a crossflation environment where you’re seeing certain assets really inflate, other assets deflate. So there’s this crossflation going on. But for years, I fought the whole peak oil crowd and I said, “Guys, never bet against human ingenuity and entrepreneurship.” This is before fracking took over. Guys were making fortunes off this peak oil concept or the peak gold or peak copper. Now there’s peak government take at the point where they take it all. But other than that, there’s no shortage of any of these commodities. It’s just the time lag and the cost put into production.
Trey Lockerbie (00:07:16):
Well, you mentioned there are better places to make money that are cheaper. One of those things that comes to mind is uranium, which has been doing decently actually over the last year, but still less than half of what it was in around, say 2011 after the Fukushima disaster. And it seems to be sort of turning a corner, but talk to us about the narrative around uranium use and the sentiment has turned a little bit more positive recently.
Marin Katusa (00:07:44):
The uranium market, since my first book came out in 2014, I’ve been the largest financier of uranium and the market created this kind of there’s a big anti-Katusa push on this because I’m basically saying, why do I need to go somewhere in Africa or South America where these projects are not that new, they’ve been recycled, the management teams who own these projects in the past broke their promises and big dreams that they sold the locals and the government, and nothing really happened, in addition. I’m one of the few guys who have been to all the major producing uranium mines on the planet, not just in Canada and the Athabasca Basin in the US, but in the FSU, Former Soviet Union. And what people really forget is the importance of Kazakh problem.
Marin Katusa (00:08:29):
Kazakhstan is the, think of all the OPEC nations and Russia combined in the uranium market. And I remember in 2015, I was asked to come give the keynote at the World Nuclear Fuel Summit. That’s where all the utilities buy the uranium from the producers. They brought me up there and I basically just talked about the elephant in the room, which was Kazakh problem. People forget to understand the FX advantage that the Russians and Kazakhs have. When I look back into these assets, these were all developed, this drilled out by the former USSR. Then they came in and brought North American technology and money to build these things. And then they started production. And then what I’ve tried to explain to everyone in these negative swap lines, Kazakh problem’s done the same thing. When you look at some of these assets that some of the Japanese or chemical used on a majority, it’s reverted now Kazakh problems majority.
Marin Katusa (00:09:27):
What is some foreign company or some Canadian company or some American company or some French company going to do in Kazakh problem? Like let’s really think about that. You know that they have all the advantage on all their tools and it’s just a matter of time. So with the FX advantage, $30 uranium before Fukushima, that’s like $75 uranium for the Kazakh. They produce about 42% of the world’s primary uranium. Then you look at where to go. And even though the spot price is still half of pre-Fukushima, it’s actually been not the utilities, Trey, that’s been buying and moving the market. What’s happened here is quite interesting. It’s been the equity companies, the actual holding companies like Yellow Cake, Uranium Royalty Corp, even explorers that don’t even produce uranium that have raised money from the markets and gone into the market to buy the uranium. And it’s such a small market, a fragile market that the pinch will come.
Marin Katusa (00:10:27):
Plus, the sentiment in the market is changing because in my opinion, as I wrote in 2014, you can’t have a net neutral world without nuclear. Now, like anything, there’s been a big learning curve and the old reactor designs did have mistakes and there were issues. The new designs are economic and they don’t take that big 10, $15 billion CapEx hit upfront that the utilities can’t afford. So it’s a gradual… Like the gold business, it’s a business and you have to look at the right market. If you’re sitting on a 300% gain, sell some. Take your initial capital plus enough to cover your cat taxes plus a little profit. And if you do believe in it, let the rest ride without any pressure because it is a very volatile market. And that’s what I’ve been preaching to my subscribers.
Marin Katusa (00:11:19):
But you don’t need to go in the middle of nowhere where you need security to take you to the project, where the locals don’t want you because there’s some pounds in the ground found from some oil company 45 years ago, but this management team is going to do it. There’s easier ways to make money in the uranium market. Stick to WISR, warm ISR, and the Athabasca Basin and you’re going to make a fortune.
Trey Lockerbie (00:11:44):
Well, we’re going to talk a lot about climate change and initiatives and how to kind of invest in these new initiatives. And you mentioned nuclear being almost a cornerstone of this, but obviously, it has sort of a stigma around it that’s I think changing. There was a recent documentary on Bill Gates where he’s going over this new nuclear reactor that they’ve developed and how much safer it is, et cetera. If that were to go into effect, say these countries really start adopting something like nuclear to power the base electrical grid, what kind of uranium consumption does that require and what should we expect for the demand of uranium if that were to go into effect?
Marin Katusa (00:12:24):
Bill Gates’s company is kind of getting a lot of the attention because it’s Bill Gates and he came out with this book, How to Prevent the Climate Crisis. It’s actually a pretty good book. But what he said about nuclear is correct, but there’s one company ahead of him in America right now, they’re actually building the reactor and the DOE put billion into it and it’s called X-energy. They’re building one in Washington state right now. The CEO of that is a guy named Clay Sell. I sat down with him, we had over an hour, two hours. We went through the numbers and think of it as smaller. So it’s quicker to build upfront, but these things can add on. Think of it as modular reactors, kind of like a Lego piece. Instead of building four big reactors all at once and putting up that cost upfront, you can add on as a modular reactor.
Marin Katusa (00:13:14):
Right now you look at the uranium world and it’s just not economic. America doesn’t produce any. There’s zero actual economics at $30 exchange. Conventional uranium, that’s digging up rock, crushing it, extracting the yellowcake out of it. Realistically, you need about 55, $60 to make somewhat of a return for investors. WISR Uranium is the cheapest form of production. You need about $40, and that’s in the US, if you’re permitted and built. And what I’m trying to explain to everyone, like I’ve said on your show two years ago and last year, I built mines. It is incredibly hard to build a mine and finance it. These are expensive. Building a uranium mine is like being a troll, going to the high school prom expecting to get the prom queen. Like the odds of that happening are so hard with the NIMBY crowd of uranium, but you can go and buy permitted built uranium assets that are just waiting for the price at a discount to nav, meaning it’s cheaper to go buy these things that are built and permitted than to go actually build it.
Marin Katusa (00:14:24):
So why would I go and build it? And that was my whole thesis on our play. So let’s just say in the next five to 10 years, Biden’s administration, they’re not there yet, but there are rumblings that it’s going that direction. And the reactor being built in Washington state right now is going to happen and it’s going to be kind of the case study for North America and Europe. There’s another one going to be decided in Ontario. That’s the largest province in Canada. I believe that it’ll be X-energy, also the same group building the one in Washington state run by Clay Sell. So it’s going to be slow and steady, but the growth is not going to be in America. Even though America consumes 25% of the global uranium today, the growth is the emerging markets like China, Saudi Arabia, and what’s going on in the Middle East. That’s full steam ahead.
Marin Katusa (00:15:16):
And trust me in the Chinese administration, they’re not focused on what the protesters or any of the NIMBY, not in my backyard crowd, are saying. It’s full-throttle moving ahead and that’s where the big growth is. Now, they’re going to get their uranium domestically and from Russia and Kazakh. And that’s been a big issue with what’s going on with Australia, although Australia is a Commonwealth nation just like Canada is or the UK. China always believed that they would get all their nuclear energy from Australia and they did sign contracts, but all of those are at risk. So that’s a bullish catalyst point for China. Russia plays key into that because Russia has the centrifuges to actually create the uranium that the mines need. America today does not have the infrastructure set to down blend their nuclear warheads to meet the needs that they have for the DOJ with all their military needs or their energy.
Marin Katusa (00:16:16):
And at the same time, the market because of Fukushima and the low cost of borrowing of Japanese money, they haven’t needed to really focus on a strategic standpoint because it was cheaper just to buy a Kazakh or Former Soviet Union uranium. But it’s reaching that head point where now the DOE is going to have to build up their stockpiles. You’re seeing the utilities are going to have to step in. The mining companies are actually buying these things. So things like Uranium Participation Corp, they’re going out to raise money to buy more supply. Yellow Cake listed on the US, which is owned I think about 6, 7% by Uranium Royalty Corp, they’re going and buying the Yellow Cake. The NASDAQ, the only NASDAQ listed company that has uranium exposures called ticker symbols UROY, Uranium Royalty Corp, they’ve gone out and bought this uranium and they’re going to store it at concordant.
Marin Katusa (00:17:09):
So all of these things it’s not just the nuclear reactors, a lot of the supply that has been sitting there because of Fukushima, and the low cost of capital, just to market the dynamics at the time, they’re kind of cleaning itself up. So yes, I think the price of uranium is going to go a lot higher.
Trey Lockerbie (00:17:28):
Fascinating stuff. Switching gears a little bit, I really want to talk about carbon credits, which you know a lot about and it’s actually a topic that’s really interesting to me and certainly a burgeoning industry as well. Let’s just start out by, please just layout your thesis for us about how the world’s obligation to decarbonize will produce what you deem to be a $16 trillion opportunity.
Marin Katusa (00:17:54):
Probably going to be bigger than that. I’m being pretty conservative with the numbers. When I kind of sat down in March of last year, we had an incredible run in our fund and in our newsletter, like incredible, top 1% of the funds in the world. Sadly what happened was I realized that I was working crazy hours. The stress was big. I gained about 25 pounds that month. I went, “Whoa, this is kind of bad for me. I’m locked up in Vancouver.” I’m a guy that usually lives on the road doing what I do and it was new to me. Being home, which I’m never home, that fridge became an every hour visit and I started kind of just thinking about things. I wondered, geez, with everything shut down, how’s this going to play out with the environment?
Marin Katusa (00:18:40):
The conception at the time was, well, we’re going to have a big reduction in carbon emissions. But what actually happened was even though the world essentially shut down for most of 2020, the global emissions of greenhouse gases reduced less than 5% for 2020. And that was kind of something that I was thinking about and researching because what a lot of people and your audience may not know, I was one of the largest financiers of green energy in 2014/15. So for example, the United States’ largest ever geothermal project built in the last 15 years, I was the largest shareholder of that in finance. Canada’s largest pure green energy company was run by a very close dear friend of mine named Ross Beaty. I was the second-largest shareholder.
Marin Katusa (00:19:24):
But my style is coming in at the boom, bust, and echo. It’s this strategy that I really talk about in my new book that’s been kind of a key framework for my investments and I get in when people are kind of done with it and they think something doesn’t work. My wife, who’s got an MBA and she’s a geologist, brilliant mind, was telling me about when she was doing her MBA, a lot of their case studies in 2009 were about carbon credits. And I would go to these lectures and I would listen about it. It was just too early. It was in what I call the boom phase. It wasn’t properly regulated. What is a carbon credit? Is a carbon credit that trade creates the same as a carbon credit that Marin creates or that some mafia creates? What’s the validity of this credit? Who says that it’s credit. These were all questions that were early.
Marin Katusa (00:20:14):
Now, let’s fast forward. How did this all start? In 1997 at the Kyoto Protocol, 180 nations signed up to this agreement saying, “Yeah, this is a problem. We obviously see what’s going on with China.” And back then they projected quite accurately where we are today. For example, if you take every car on the planet and add up its carbon emissions in a year, China produces more carbon emissions just from the concrete they create every year. Think about that. And every year, there’s a new New York City being built, every month for the next 40 years. That’s the magnitude of development that’s going on in the planet. There’s even a whole audience that don’t even believe in climate change and all these aspects, but let’s just really hone in on what is the real situation.
Marin Katusa (00:21:02):
Now, 15 years ago, ESG funds were a concept, the environmental, social, and governance aspects. But we’ve gotten to the point as the boomers are phasing out, the millennials are phasing in, there’s the largest pool of capital ever coming in into this sector with what I call a stakeholder capitalism perspective. It can’t just be good for a bunch of rich white old dudes who go around the world and extract value. It has to have value for the locals, the indigenous population that was there before the company got there, the environment, the government, and down the road. China’s not going to tax themselves on this. In all honesty, why should they? You think about Europe and North America, for 100 years, all of that development that came in moving society forward with the electrification and the industrialization, there was no carbon tax for Europe or North America. So saying, hey, the carbon emissions just from China’s concrete every year equals all the car emissions on the planet, China’s not going to tax themselves. So you have a whole perspective of what’s going to happen about these public companies.
Marin Katusa (00:22:15):
When I ripped through the data, there’s over 4,500 public companies in North America and Europe with over a billion-dollar market cap, that’s a B, a billion-dollar market cap. And you have about 8% of them in the last 12 months came out with some form of, hey, we have to reduce our carbon footprint. So they came up with a plan. Did they all of a sudden do that because they have a conscience? Maybe, but really when I talked about 1997 180 countries signed up, Trey, how many of them do you think actually met their numbers for reduction of emissions?
Trey Lockerbie (00:22:52):
Two.
Marin Katusa (00:22:53):
Zero.
Trey Lockerbie (00:22:54):
Okay. I was being generous, I think.
Marin Katusa (00:22:56):
Exactly. What my point is, you can have good intentions but without skin in the game, nothing changes because bureaucrats and politicians, they change and, “Oh, well, we tried.” Generally, they’re champagne socialists. They want to talk about change, but they don’t know how to make a change. Well, the biggest impact the millennial investor is going to make, through these ESG funds, they’re going to put the fire on the ass of these directors of these public companies and the CEOs and it’s going to be something called cost of capital. These ESG funds, people don’t realize that it’s the largest growing sector in the bond market. We’re talking about over 25 times growth from 2013 to today. And here’s the wild part. The US government, the US sector has been 2% of the capital for that. It’s been majority EU.
Marin Katusa (00:23:46):
So once the American eagle wakes up to this, which it will, and under the Biden administration is going to be one of the impacts. Now, whether you agree with what Biden’s doing or not, one huge fact that is going to happen is the trillions of dollars that is going to be invested in these sectors are going to have a mandate. I do a lot of lending to companies. You have covenants. Trades got to have your leverage ratios, your cashflow ratios. The management has to meet covenants that they agree to.
Marin Katusa (00:24:16):
These green bonds come to these companies and not only do they have to meet these financial covenants, they have to meet the E, the environmental covenants, the S, the social governance. So they’re going to have to have what is your carbon footprint, how are you including the indigenous people? And then from a governance standpoint, that G is for example a big pipeline company came out and they tapped into the green bonds and they had to say, 40% of our population workforce is going to be females by 2030. And if they don’t meet that, their cost of capital goes up to match the bond market of the non-green bonds. So the green bonds, if you meet this, is a lower cost of capital. These companies really want this because it means more free cash flow for their shareholders, which means they’ve got skin in the game, they make more money for everyone. This is the facts of how it’s moving forward.
Marin Katusa (00:25:07):
So, how does this all go to vote? Since 1997, there’s been about 4 billion carbon credits created. Now, that’s including the good, the bad, and the ugly. And during that time, there’s been a lot of ugly. Remember, there’s this boom phase. Then there’s this bust phase, which we’re at right now. We’re in what I call the echo where people are starting to figure out, hold on a second, we have to be verified. So you can’t use a carbon credit twice. It’s used as an offset. It’s a commodity. It’s going to be the biggest commodity over the next 25 years because you have to go and create these, and just planting trees isn’t the solution. If you look at the average American, just the footprint of an average American would equal about 50 acres of forest planted over 40 years to offset one American.
Marin Katusa (00:25:56):
If you just quickly do the numbers, that’d be something like 45% of the global landmass would have to be planted. And over 40 years, that would just negate the American population. So that’s not a solution either. It’s important and there’s ways to increase it, but then there’s blue carbon. What about the ocean? And that’s going to be a growing sector. Apple. Apple computer just came out on Friday aftermarket with a press release saying we’ve invested in all this and we’re coming out with 30,000 carbon credits a year on our blue carbon project, which is kind of a mangrove, which is about 70% underwater, 30% above water. And it’s 30,000 credits and it’s about 20 bucks a ton for their costs. These trade in the European on the, yes, is that about 60 American equivalents? I think it’s a little over €50.
Marin Katusa (00:26:46):
In Canada, the prime minister, like our president, mandated in law that by 2030, it’s $170 per ton to offset. And the Alberta provincial governments, that’s the Texas of Canada, the oil producer and the gas producer majority in Canada, took this all the way to the Supreme Court of Canada to fight it and lost about three weeks ago. It’s law, it’s done. What is the one thing you can guarantee the politicians are going to do? Tax more. But here’s the beauty of this. This is the only tax I’ve ever seen that you and I can participate and take our fair share. Where we’re going to be in 10 years, green bonds aren’t going to be this new thing. It’s just going to be all bonds are going to require this ESG aspect.
Marin Katusa (00:27:36):
Today it’s still pretty early. And remember, 91 and a half percent of the public companies haven’t even come up with this. We’re just talking about the beginning. We’re not even in the first inning of this game. We’re still on the far V of this baseball game. We haven’t even got to the big leagues yet. It is a sector that’s growing and if Exxon just wanted to negate its impact, there’s S1, S2, S3. S1 is direct carbon. So it’s like actually lifting, or if they crack, the emissions they actually create. S2 direct and indirect. And S3 is all of the above combined. I never use S3. But if you just take the five largest oil American companies, they would need to soak up all of the carbon credits created since 1997, that’s including the good, the bad, and the ugly.
Marin Katusa (00:28:24):
But that was then. Where are we going now? Now you have, it starting to get globalized where you have the big three verifiers, like in accounting after Arthur Anderson scandal, PwC, Ernst & Young, they really created an international standard with GADA. Today it’s IFRS. That’s what’s happening right now in the current credit world where verifiers like versa or gold-standard, there’s three big ones, and they have ledgers. And these actually trade. In the first three months of this year, we’ve already treated more carbon credits and dollar value than the last two years combined. And it’s not just speculators buying it. It’s corporations looking to offset because their cost of capital will become lower and then they can meet the needs of the pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
Trey Lockerbie (00:29:10):
What exchanges is this trading on?
Marin Katusa (00:29:12):
The three big ones. For example, you can go… Think of it as like ledgers. It’s not like you go on your E-Trade account and buy these verifiers. You can do it through the ETFs for that way. I think there’s better ways of doing other than that. You could go on to the European EU ETS. That’s one way of actually if you just have an online brokerage account, but you can actually, kind of like in commodities, you can’t really buy a lot of the commodities on your E-Trade account or your online brokerage account. You can buy an ETF that does it, but if you actually contact the ledgers or the commodity markets, you can actually buy these contracts. That’s eventually going to change where they’re going to list, just like Bitcoin had its transition and it listed and became easier and easier for the retail person [inaudible 00:29:58] to buy it, that’s where we’re going with these carbon credits.
Marin Katusa (00:30:02):
But a company doesn’t need to go online and buy it through these ledgers. They can contact the actual ledger, like [Aversa 00:30:08], and contact them, or the guys who are actually creating the commodity, a carbon credit. That’s the hardest thing. A lot of people are like, what the hell is a carbon credit? What does it look like? I can’t see it. Well, it’s the equivalent to a ton of carbon dioxide. It’s got an equivalent aspect. So if you think about it, a million carbon credits is the equivalent of about a quarter-million cars, years of emissions on a standard average car that the average American household owns, or the average minivan. So it’s just over a quarter million. So it’s a way to visualize what this is.
Marin Katusa (00:30:47):
If you think about it even in a simpler way, one tree, traditional fir or an oak, take a big Douglas fir, from beginning to 40 years of its peak absorption, it’s about worth four carbon credits. But you can see how difficult it is to go and create these. Now, if me and you, Trey, said we want to go create these carbon credits, like let’s compare it to Bitcoin, we want to create a Bitcoin farm and you have an algorithm, you and I cannot certify this. There’s a process to actually go and certify. The science is there. Then you pop it onto the blockchain. And these corporations are going to want the highest standard. So like I mentioned, the big three verifiers, like Aversa or a Gold Standard, these different quotes that you have to pay, but you might think you have a million credits like Apple got it certified and they came up with 30,000 credits for the next 20 years and their cost is around 20 bucks US per ton. And then they’re using that to offset.
Marin Katusa (00:31:45):
Microsoft went into the market at the end of last year and bought 1.3 million credits to offset their thing because they’re trying to be a leader in this. But there’s a bigger angle here that I think this is kind of the last chapter of my book, which I call The Rise of America. And it really hit me one day because of quarantine. We’re not allowed to go anywhere in Canada and Canada has done such a horrible job managing COVID. So like every average family in Canada, Amazon put deliveries to your door. And I started thinking about this and came home one day and I looked, there’s this huge box. I go bend down. The thing weighed like nothing. I opened this up, it had a bunch of packaging. My wife bought one whiteout pen. One pen had this huge box.
Marin Katusa (00:32:29):
And I started thinking, what is the carbon footprint of this? So I started doing the math on it, and I started realizing that no wonder with the world shutting down, we’ve only reduced our carbon footprint by less than 5% globally. Amazon’s making a huge push that they’re going carbon neutral. Net zero is really hard. It means you don’t create any emissions. Net neutral is saying, hey, I offset the emissions we’ve made. And they’re investing billions of dollars to make their delivery trucks electric. They’re doing step one the right things. In my household, my wife manages all of the inside house, everything, ordering everything.
Marin Katusa (00:33:12):
Imagine if you empower the average American, the average European, the average Canadian on your online purchases to go net neutral, the industrial revolution that would come from the green bonds. And this thing that’s polluting from China is coming here and everyone’s turning a blind eye because it’s cheap. But we can today. We have cheaper power and clean green power in America like Texas. I financed 200-megawatt project in Texas, the Top Flats, which is cheaper than Lignite Power in China. That’s where we’re at on the economics. Texas is the Saudi Arabia of wind power. It is so cheap right now with the low cost of capital and the robotics and technology and the IP. Amazon can reduce a huge number. $700 billion of goods comes into America through Amazon, Home Depot, Walmart, and Costco. Think about the footprint that that makes from China that’s unchecked.
Marin Katusa (00:34:10):
Remember, China’s not going to be going into the market, but by empowering the people by going net neutral, just on that, that has nothing to do with the whole companies are making this, but that’s going to be a huge catalyst. We’ve already had companies contact me regarding this concept. And when you see that the average person does want to make a high paying job in their local community and make an impact with the environment because you’re going to significantly reduce emissions, that will be a game-changer to China also because they’re going to realize, “Uh-oh, we’ve got to pick up our standards.” Think about the threat to the communist regime on that standpoint and their agenda.
Marin Katusa (00:34:47):
And if you’re in Taiwan, you’re definitely paying attention to what I’m doing. And I know that they are because they’ve contacted me on this. So you sit in these second-order effects here that by just doing the right thing, the companies get a lower cost of capital and it becomes higher cash flow, we improve stakeholder capitalism, and this is just rowing, just beginning. And last year they created about just under 200 million credits of carbon, just 200. Right now we produce over 50 billion globally. But if we just attack 10% of the S&P 500 companies to go net neutral, you’re going to need a couple of billion credits just to be absorbed in the market. I have never seen such a supply and demand ARB in any commodity. And Trey, I was the largest financier in uranium. I’ve been there and done that. I am the largest in the gold sector, and I have never seen an opportunity like what I’m seeing right now in the carbon world.
Trey Lockerbie (00:35:46):
That’s what I’m not quite clear on, I think, is that, okay, the value, in my opinion, I guess initially looking at this was that it’s from some kind of fixed supply of sorts, and maybe that’s why there was a downfall as you kind of expressed earlier in the initial days of carbon credits. There was a little bit of a bear market that happened, and now you have to verify the supply chain of sorts. So that’s what’s not quite clear to me, Marin, because it seems like we do need to add a lot more supply of these things to the market potentially. So, where does the value drive from? You’ve mentioned that this asset class is the biggest outperformer over the last three years, including surpassing Bitcoin in performance. So how are you measuring that? Is it Apple buying their tons for 20 bucks a pop?
Marin Katusa (00:36:32):
That’s actually what is trading right now in the voluntary market. If you wanted, like you, Trey, could go on and buy these credits. That’s what it is in the European market. The head of the European Union just came out and said that price needs to over double for it to make an impact on the company. And again, the governments are starting to figure out that a bunch of bureaucrats, a bunch of champagne socialists aren’t going to make the change, that companies are going to make a change. But it’s the flow of capital that is. Remember how big the bond market is. Everyone focuses on the stock market, but the bond market is a smart money and this huge explosion of ESG green bonds are going to fund this revolution. It’s happening now. You want to go build a gold mine, okay, your cost of capital on one mine is going to cost anywhere between, depending on the project… I’m in this market, so I know the exact numbers. Anywhere between 8 and 12%.
Marin Katusa (00:37:22):
Now, if I’m now certified bond green and I can get there, my cost of capital is somewhere between three and five. And you’re talking about, if the management understand this, I’m having all of the senior executives of these gold companies holding me up. Remember, last year when I came up with this whole negative swap line concept, they hated me because they’re like, what the hell is a swap line and why are you freaking out my shareholders saying that the governments are going to start taking more? Well, they are. Look what Argentina is doing. Look what Peru’s doing. Look what is going on across the board. And it’s starting to create this value driver for large tier one deposits in North America and politically stable jurisdictions with the respect to the rule of law.
Marin Katusa (00:38:00):
And now these companies are starting to realize like, Oh, geez, if my margins are 14, 15% for this commodity I produce, but my cost of capital’s costing me 8, 9% all in, they’re clipping a 4%. If they can reduce their cost of capital to say 4%, that doubles their free cash flow and there’s a huge surge. But they’re starting to realize, so for example, the CEO of the largest builder nuclear reactors on the planet, I had a call with. He was like, “Okay, we’re net zero.” I go, “Well, no, you’re not.” Think about the concrete and everything that goes on when you have to build it.
Marin Katusa (00:38:37):
But imagine now you can, truly, because that was the whole thing that the anti-nuclear world talked about going, “Well, hold on a second. There’s a footprint to producing uranium.” True. Well, there’s a footprint to building your reactor. That is also true. But you could offset that and out of the gates, you truly are net zero. And when I walked him through the math and how he can go about this, he goes, “This is a no-brainer. We’re on this. Can you introduce me to these?” Like we’re in the infancy here and it is going to be a huge growing trend.
Marin Katusa (00:39:09):
A mining company in the 1940s or ’50s, do you think they even had local educational seminars or any of that? They came into it down, they built it and they left. Think about the evolution and change. Stakeholder capitalism is where the world is going and moving forward. It can’t just be good for the company. It has to be good for everyone at all. And this carbon offset is going to become a massive play moving forward. It’d be one thing doing this 10 years ago. The technology wasn’t there, A, to verify it, put it on the blockchain, the cost of capital. There was no incentive for the companies to do this. And China could produce everything cheaper and it was just, we’ve already set up the factories.
Marin Katusa (00:39:52):
And the cost of electricity in America at the time we’re so fossil. Remember, 15 years ago, half of America’s electricity generation came from coal. Now it’s half of that and it’s going to continue to decrease because the technology has gotten down so cheap for the materials for wind and solar, and it’s going to continue to improve. Now, look, I’m not here to support or cheer for any of these companies or what’s going on, but the trend is your friend, this is where the sector’s going. I think this is going to continue to outperform Bitcoin. And I love Bitcoin. I’ve invested in Mark Hart’s fund. And if anyone knows Mark Hart, he was talking about this five, six years ago. So I’m one of these guys that rather than trying to have my fingers in everything, I figured out who the best is in their specific discipline, put a bunch of dough in and then ride their victory.
Marin Katusa (00:40:41):
And with Mark and [inaudible 00:40:43], that’s been an incredible journey through this crypto benefit and rise. But as I was digging more and more into this carbon sector, I realized that it started, Trey, with exactly that, governments. Think about the screw-ups the UN did. I’ve read case studies out a year ago when they would go into Brazil and they would plant what they thought would be a faster-growing tree in an area where that species didn’t belong. And then what did it do? Price inflation. They attracted the local farmers, which screwed up their farms beside it, created hate from the existing farmers. It absorbed way more water, introduced new bugs and pesticides, and it was a disaster. So that’s the evolution curve of where it was in 1998 to about 2014.
Marin Katusa (00:41:28):
That was kind of its first phase. And just like anything, whether it’s Ethereum or mining or fracking, I remember when a four-stage or an eight-stage frack was big. I remember I wrote an article in 2008, one day we’ll get to a 24 stage fracks. Now they’re doing like 128 stage fracks and that’s just like normal Monday business. They don’t even talk about that anymore. Zipper fracks and all these things that… Think about Murphy’s law. That’s where we’re getting into the sector.
Marin Katusa (00:41:55):
And I get, it’s a really hard thing for people to get their heads around, but this reminds me of Bitcoin in 2010 and 11. It was difficult and the adoption wasn’t yet there, that’s where we’re going. And it lines up in the best interest of the management teams, the stakeholder capitalism folks, and overall it empowers the average American household to really support an industrial revolution that America hasn’t ever seen since the 1940s; cheap power, you’ve got the robotics, you’ve got the cheap cost of capital with the green bonds coming in, the IPs are already there, and they can produce the same gadgets and everything that China does at a cheaper overall cost by going the option of going net neutral, and it will happen.
Trey Lockerbie (00:42:46):
In your recent report, you were mentioning that 76, almost 80%, of global emissions are currently considered what they call unpriced externalities, meaning that the negative environmental effect or result from the production is not taxed or captured in any sort of monetary penalty. I guess my question is with carbon credits, seemingly they’re coming online to offset and decrease the impact of these global emissions, but we’re going to need more and more of them. Do they seemingly lose value then over time as there’s an increase? Okay, talk to me about that.
Marin Katusa (00:43:21):
Opposite. If you think about it, as the price goes higher, its demand increases. It’s Giffens good. First of all, there’s no other replacement for it. You can’t create the rarer. I was a big rarest player about 15 years ago. There is no replacement for carbon credits. That’s the fact. Number two, I totally agree. Like, think about China’s emissions are greater every year than all of the OECD nations combined plus more. You’re not going to get Jinping to say, “We agree, it is an airpocalypse. We agree, what we’re doing is in such a large scale that the planet has never seen it before.” He’s going to argue, “Yeah, but we’re doing it for you because you guys need the stuff because you’re not doing it, you’re not polluting where you are.” That was the whole argument of the emerging markets, specifically China.
Marin Katusa (00:44:12):
But what I’m getting at is saying 10 years ago, that was a correct argument. Because even if it was a low cost of capital, and even if the robotic technology was there and the IP was there for America, the electricity cost to generate, to power this stuff was just too high. It just wasn’t economic. All of the stars have aligned now and the platform is for this resurgence. So it’s not just going to be buy American. Remember what Trump did, whether you like Trump or not is irrelevant. He rattled the cage with China and he broke the foreign policy that America has had with China since WHO which was an engagement of cooperation. Trump broke that and said, “No, no, no. I’m competing with you.” Where he screwed up was he didn’t have the EU on board, which is their second largest customer, because he pissed them all off by saying, “You’re going to pay your fair share for the UN and NATO.”
Marin Katusa (00:45:05):
And so they were like, “Hold on a second. Now you’re going to tell us to pay more and you want us to do what we want to try.” And remember, other governments kind of took a different strategy saying, well, let’s see where Trump is in three years. So Trump didn’t have the right strategy, but what did Biden do? With Antony Blinken’s strategy, did it change? No, they’re totally continuing with. It is the engagement of competition with China. But what was Antony Blinken’s first mission as secretary of state? He went to France. And remember, that’s where he was educated. He was a rich kid in the US. His parents got divorced. He went to France. That’s where he got educated. He’s seen as one of them. He went there, met Macron, and they kind of kissed a meetup, and they got aligned. Then he went to Italy. Then he went to Germany. And this move is moving forward.
Marin Katusa (00:45:50):
Now, you look at, for example, pools of capital. Mark Carney, who was the Governor of the Bank of England. His book just came out and now Mark Carney works with Brookfield. That is the biggest pool of capital in Canada and he’s saying this carbon initiative is the number one thing. It is going to be. After COVID, the governments are going to be this war on carbon. Politicians always need a war on something, but they’ve realized that sanctions aren’t good. Look what has happened to Iran. It’s pushed them towards the hands of China. But if you empower the American household to empower their purchasing power, and that will be a huge catalyst, in coordination at the same time these green bonds are happening totally independently because more money is being controlled by passive funds than ever before and it’s continuing to increase, the carbon credits become a key vital aspect, and it’s a Giffen good, which essentially means as the price goes up, the demand for it goes up.
Marin Katusa (00:46:53):
Okay. How do you go and create it? I’ve actually broken down in my research reports. Think of it as a goldmine and just pretend we were talking gold here and all these countries needed gold. Okay, well, they’ll just go take the gold. Well, it doesn’t work like that with carbon credits. There’s one project on the planet, one, that has been verified that can do 10 million tons a year for 20 years. That’s it. Just like a gold mine. You got to go and explore and dig and drill and do the calculations and feasibility studies to see if it’s economic. That’s what happens with these carbon projects and you got to put up the money upfront. A lot of people think that carbon credit is a tax that the government can just create them out of thin air. No, it is not. It is a commodity that you have to get certified.
Marin Katusa (00:47:41):
And like I said, back in the early 2000s up to mid-2010, these were cowboy territory. What was the certification? And those credits aren’t really valued anymore and you can’t really put those on exchanges because people are like, “Wait a second. What bucket shop verify this?” What I’m saying now is not all carbon credits are equal and a carbon credit that is, say like a blue carbon, the second-order effects of creating a, for example, a coral reef, an algae, and then the effect of the biodiversity impact and protection, those blue carbon credits are going to have a huge value down the road not just from the price of them, but they cost more to produce, to create, to verify.
Marin Katusa (00:48:22):
But if you’re Delta Airlines, they came out and just said, “Hey, we’re investing in this stuff.” And it’s going to be more and more companies and it’s going to be the opposite of, well, we can just create these out of thin air and the price will crash. That was kind of phase one of the cycle and those weren’t even yet certified and verified by it. Look, there’s a lot of companies that claim balance sheets. And then you look at who the auditor is and you’re like, “I’ve never heard of these guys. That’s probably not real.” That’s where it was. Today, when a PwC signs off, it doesn’t guarantee that it’s 100% correct, but you get a lot more comfort if PricewaterhouseCoopers or Ernst & Young, or any of the big accounting firms have signed off and done the verification of the financials.
Marin Katusa (00:49:05):
Another thing, Trey, mark my words, guaranteed within 10 years. Just like big changes in accounting had to incorporate different things like liabilities, bonds, and projects, they’re going to increase on your balance sheet what your carbon footprint is. And like I said, the government of Canada mandated this by law. It’s going to be just like when you go to a mine you have to certify your bond for your tailings pond and that’s a liability for the life of the project, your carbon footprint is going to be on the balance sheet and that’s going to be mandated by the law. And step one is what Canada just did. They mandated by law that the carbon price is $170 per ton by 2030. Right now it’s $40 a ton. That’s mandated by law, and they’re going to keep increasing it.
Marin Katusa (00:49:53):
So I expect it to go a lot higher than it is right now. And I’m not saying you use $60 in your valuations. Just like I use 13, $1,400 gold in my companies, you can find companies out there that are using $10 in their valuations and you invest in these companies because they can sell it to Microsoft or some mining company for 20 or $30. If the company is in a pinch, they can go to the exchange and buy it at $60, which is happening. But that’s one way of doing it. I’m saying a bigger bang for your buck, just like in mining, you find these companies that are producing these things that nobody is paying attention to. Their cashflow is like, for example, one company is using $10 per ton. Their IRR is at $10 per ton right now, cash flows. These are certified built projects are four times the IRR of the big four precious metal company IRRs using $1,800 gold.
Trey Lockerbie (00:50:51):
Is this a public company or?
Marin Katusa (00:50:53):
Yeah, it’s a public company. So I sit there and I say to myself, “Wait a second. This is kind of interesting.” I’m not saying put 100% of your net worth into Bitcoin or gold or anything, but I’m going, these numbers are insane. From an IRR standpoint, right now the average IRR for a good precious metal royalty stream that’s producing is somewhere between 4 and 6%. You can buy using $10 carbon 20, 25% IRRs. Now, you tell me. First of all, Apple just came out and said they’re doing 30,000 tons between 12 and 20 bucks. You know it’s going to 20 bucks if they put that price range. This is still one-third of what the price is that’s trading on the exchanges. There’s this incredible arm. And then the government of Canada mandated by law, whether you like it or not, you’re paying 170 bucks per ton by 2030.
Marin Katusa (00:51:44):
These projects roll out for 20, 30 years and you build a giant blue carbon mangrove project. It’s not like a mine where, okay, we’ve got a six-year mine life and the gold’s gone. These are all verified and certified. I could only imagine what people are thinking here and they’re probably like, what is this guy talking about? But there’s websites out there like the Bloomberg of carbon credits is www.carboncredits.com. You can educate yourself on the sector. And I just think if you want to see where the sector is going, these companies are going to have to do this. You pull up any mining company, before they get into their assets, they’re talking about their ESG because they cannot get invested in.
Marin Katusa (00:52:28):
Think about this. Do you know what the seventh or, sorry, I think it’s top eight company on the S&P 500 in the ESG ETF is, Home Depot. How the hell does that make any sense? That’s how early we are in the sector. And go look at where most of the tools and equipment from Home Depot is made from, China. Once this goes out of the option, like when you go buy any food, it has like your calories and fat. Once the government gets to the point where they provide the information, because remember, with AI, all of that is known. That’s how good their AI is. They know exactly where these carbon credits are coming from, they know this. Jeff Bezos is going to get on this. And this is part of his you want to create a huge impact, imagine now 100 million users clicking net neutral, buy American, clean American.
Trey Lockerbie (00:53:19):
Let’s talk about America a little bit because you have a new book coming out called The Rise of America, and it seems like somewhat of a contrarian idea at the moment. Talk to us a little bit about the premise of the book and what drove you to write it.
Marin Katusa (00:53:33):
I’m Canadian. There was this, because of Trump, Canada’s very left. Think of Canada as California. My wife and her friends, they’re all well-to-do great people. But I would be sitting there and one comment was made, imagine how much better America would be doing if Hillary was president. And I kind of just sat there and I went, “Well, okay.” And there’s this anti-American theme globally. And I guess you can say rightfully so, America has been a bully. Think about what they’ve done around the world. But at the end of the day, when I started looking at the data on this, and you locked me up in a room for a year or in a house. After that first month when I gained 25 pounds, I realized I better stop doing this and start putting my energies towards something else.
Marin Katusa (00:54:23):
My first book I wrote when I was locked up after my heart surgery, I had a quadruple bypass. And then this time of quarantine, I said, “You know what? I’ve got some really contrarian views.” And as I was writing these views, we were killing it in the market based off of this framework that nobody’s talking about. In fact, I was getting mocked and ridiculed, but I’m sitting there going, we’re pulling like three, four, five, six, seven baggers and liquid. And I start realizing that, wait a second, it’s cool to hate America. It’s cool to think that America’s empire, its greatest days are behind it. Everyone’s saying that its MMT is here. And I’m saying, wait a second. I actually think that what Biden’s policies are doing, we’re in a new normal. So I started writing about that.
Marin Katusa (00:55:12):
And then I talked about understanding the US dollar. I built projects around the world. I’ve been to over 115 countries. When you start doing that, you get a different perspective. And then I started going, okay, we’re in a new normal, try to understand the US dollar. We’re in a new monetary world too. There’s no doubt about it. Things are very different. But people keep talking about I link the old world, the Kings world with the 2% target and I really break down using data why it was 2%. What did New Zealand do? Why was it 2%, linking it back to natural gold production using the old framework? Is MMT really here? Is UBI on the way? Or maybe we’re taking a new accelerated version of the longest-serving fed chairman of all time, which was really the guy from the late ’30s, his name was William, and he was there for over 20 years. And that was more of an FMC, fiscal monetary coordination, and you can see that playing out. So I questioned those aspects.
Marin Katusa (00:56:13):
Then I talk about, okay, let’s understand what money is, the short history of money. What is gold and why does gold matter? And I talked about where I really have an advantage over all these other fund managers is actually the building of these energy projects, which I’ve done for my career, funding these things, being the largest shareholder. Trey, you can be an analyst, but then when you put your money on the line, you try to go build something. Just try doing a rental in your house and see how that goes. Or try to go build a house. Imagine building a huge 300-megawatt wind farm or a 500-megawatt river project. You start learning how difficult it is and where the costs are going, the cost inflation, the cost deflation, all these different aspects.
Marin Katusa (00:56:54):
And then by fluke because what I did in my past, I was heavily involved in the critical metals like the rarers and the uranium. Don’t bet against America. America does its best when it has its back to the wall and this market, and I started talking about where we are from the flow of capital, demographics, the situation where we are debt globally. I explore this whole concept of what people are really talking about debt jubilee and how would that work and the second order effect. As I was writing about this anyways based off of my investments, I came up with a very contrarian view. I’m the largest investor and financier of these gold projects. And most people invest in gold to fight the US dollar. That was the old thesis, gold up, dollar down.
Marin Katusa (00:57:43):
And I’m coming up saying, wait a second. We’re in a new normal. And the guys that I used to work with and invest with, they were like, negative interest rates can’t happen, Marin. And I was arguing back then that they can happen. And I started talking about quantum economics and how things are changing, where things are going and the deflationary effects with technology and all these aspects. I wrote a chapter that my publisher was like, “Hey man, you’re going to get us banned from Amazon and Barnes & Nobles and Wall Street. We just can’t publish this. This is so out there.” And I said, “Well, the one benefit of having a bestseller in your first thing is negotiating what you put in your publishing contract.” So I knew ahead of time where I was going with this.
Marin Katusa (00:58:24):
So there in the last chapter I think is the biggest outside the box concept and it’s called the forbidden chapter and I really lay out piecing the first eight chapters together and where the rise of American, the specifics of how it will happen. And at the end of the day, I get it. People are tired of America and it’s never been more divisive politically, that people have never had less trust in the media and the government. And it sounds like if you looked at the media, it’s never been worse. It has, this is not new to America’s past. And remember, this is a nation that went through a civil war and it prevailed. And my argument is, yes, we are in a G2 world where it’s America and allies on one side and China wanting to rattle. And I really discussed the whole US dollar as the reserve currency of the world. And whether you’re a Bitcoin fan or not, whether you’re a gold fan or not, whether you’re a US fan or not, I lay this out not in an opinion way, data-driven because that’s my strength.
Trey Lockerbie (00:59:32):
I’m excited to read it. Listen, I’m not a macroeconomist by any stretch of the imagination. But it’s just so interesting to me to hear you talk about America thriving in this way because my general understanding is that there’s this juxtaposition of sorts by maintaining this world reserve currency that we have, meaning it’s either negative or positive. The understanding I have is that the right of having this world reserve currency ultimately results in us constantly running this deficit that we’re doing right now because we need to get more dollars out into the world. By doing that, we’re essentially mercantiling these other countries like China and giving them rise to a lot of new wealth.
Trey Lockerbie (01:00:12):
And a lot of those dollars going out into the system are going to buy things like commodities and mostly oil because, since the mid-’70s, we essentially transitioned from a US dollar backed by gold to now what’s called the petrodollar system because it’s essentially that we created an agreement with Saudi Arabia that said, look, you’re going to price your oil in dollars. And so therefore we essentially backed the US dollar by energy. And I guess my question is that the negative effect I’ve seen from that is that it’s essentially carved out our middle-class here in America because instead of, we now created this incentive to buy goods, mostly importing our goods from other countries. So it’s basically exported our manufacturing.
Trey Lockerbie (01:00:57):
And so the US is now more of a financial services and healthcare center in the world, but there’s been a lot of that middle-class eroded away. And I guess my ultimate question is, A, do you agree with that? And B if petrol, if we go back to our earlier conversation here about moving towards renewable energy, as petrol goes more and more away, how do we maintain this reserve currency status? Is it backed by renewables in some way, are we making deals with Texas? As you mentioned, here’s the new Saudi Arabia.
Marin Katusa (01:01:29):
I agree with you everywhere up until when you said that the petrodollar was backed by oil, which it facilitates that but also don’t forget the other side of the equation was the military, the greatest military on the planet. That’s what the Saudi Royal Family got out of this was guaranteed support. In my book, I really break down the critical rule Israel plays in all this, what’s going to happen with Iran. And remember, I’ve traveled through these places. I’ve actually done business in these areas and it’s a unique area that’s full of broken promises. Now, in my first book, I had a whole chapter breaking down everything on the petrodollar and I said we’re at the beginning of the unwind of the petrodollar.
Marin Katusa (01:02:11):
So as crazy as this will sound, Trey, to a lot of the haters on the US dollar, when you unwind that petrodollar, there’s actually a shortage of US dollars in this market that we’re so used to the petrodollar being flooded into the market. But you said a key part. So much of these petrodollars or US dollars went into commodities and things that people needed in manufacturing and debt. And that debt has to be repaid in US dollars. That’s the one thing about debt. You have to pay it back or you default and someone else takes that asset. So then we get to the part and you said the key part was America’s played this cheaper manufacturing from importing things, but we are changing. The form of energy is changing. It’s a transition. Just like we went from dial-up internet to cable, fiber optic, now we’re going to be getting into the 5G, and then who knows what will be after 5G. Everything is changing.
Marin Katusa (01:03:10):
And now if you can build these low-cost operating robotic, the technology, that wasn’t there 15 or even 10 years ago. So, that’s going to start and it’s coming and leading the way. I’m not just saying by Tesla or the latest stuff. But think about where the markets are going for these platform companies because they see so much growth. Jeff Bezos said it the best on his AGM. 28% of all of our sales happen in less than 90 seconds because they’re telling you already what you already want. They have Amazon’s choice and you just click it. And I fall for this stuff all the time. I just sit there, I don’t know, I need paper, whatever, order it. And when your profile’s set up and all these moves in this way, I know it’s hard for people because people are thinking in this linear world or I call it the, when you talk about debts and how much debt America has or GDP or per capita, it’s still much better than the Euro or Canada.
Marin Katusa (01:04:07):
As bad as America is, it’s much better than Japan or the Europe. What is Euro? At least with the US dollar, I know who owes you. With the Euro, who? Is it the French? Is it the Germans? Are you going to rely on a bunch of Croatians? Like what is the Euro about? And now you’ve got to get 29 nations or 28 nations to agree on things and where that’s going in the bureaucracy. For Canada, you look at Canada’s situation. So I agree with you, it’s a process and this is, America’s pretty beaten down right now. All I’m saying is this is not a linear nor is it by far done. We’re only at the beginning of the rise of America.
Marin Katusa (01:04:52):
I’m going to say it right now and I know people are going to shake their heads. People think of America’s height as the 1950s, that the ’50s were the glory days. America yet has not seen its glory days, as good as it was. When this is all said and done, I truly believe America’s best days are ahead of it. That doesn’t mean… This is a battle. It is a massive World War III going on with China and this G2 world. But ask yourself, what happened to Jack Ma? What would happen to Jack Ma is he was from Silicon Valley?
Trey Lockerbie (01:05:23):
Let’s quickly touch on China because they’re one of the main countries that comes to mind who is a little bit disincentivized to keep investing in something like US bonds, especially with the interest rates being what they are and being so low. You’re not getting much yield. And then you’ve got the idea of the US dollar inflating away. I recently heard that six years ago, trade between China and Russia was 98% in US dollars. And last year it was only 33%. So they’re finding ways to trade without the US dollar more and more. And now they’ve got this Chinese digital currency coming out and that might exacerbate that trend. So they’re one of the main countries I think trying to get away from this world reserve currency US status. What are we to think about that or do about that and how does that play into your kind of forecast here?
Marin Katusa (01:06:13):
Remember my first book, The Colder War, talked about how Russia and China will work closer together and follow the money. They have to do that. But also you look at the prices. A lot of the devil’s in the details. When you look at the data, six years ago, you were using $100 oil. Now they’re buying that same oil from Russia for 35 bucks a bill, 40 bucks. So there’s different aspects that into play there. Number two, long-term offset contracts, the big pipeline infrastructure. And as they are going to continue with that strategy, the greatest deal happening on the planet right now is the deal that China’s making with Iran because Iran has no other choices. So I agree with you 100% and I lay that out. This is where the G2 world really is solidifying.
Marin Katusa (01:06:59):
But at the same standpoint, look what happened between March and May of 2020. We look at the swap lines that America, that greatly exceeded any of the Chinese Yuan swap lines that they gave to their partners. So yes, China’s importance and the Belt One Road, what they’re trying to do there is growing, but it’s nowhere near as important as what America is to its allies today. It’s going to grow, but let’s not forget how important America is to someone like in India. Is it just a coincidence that India and China are battling on the border and Prime Minister Modi comes out and says he’s got “swap line envy” and you’re going to see massive billion-dollar investments from the big American platform companies like Google, Apple, Facebook into India? Probably the next country to get a US swap line is India. They’re doing everything right to be on an American platform.
Trey Lockerbie (01:07:57):
Well, being an American, I certainly hope you’re right. I love the title, The Rise of America. The book is coming out May 25th, and we’re really looking forward to reading it. Marin, this is why we love having you on the show. We just had such a wide-ranging discussion. We covered so much, and I know that you and I could sit here all day and go over this stuff because we love it so much. I’d be remiss if I didn’t give you an opportunity to hand off your latest book, your first book, and also Katusa Research, and any other resources you want to share.
Marin Katusa (01:08:25):
Sure. Look, you can go to Amazon or Barnes & Noble, The Rise of America. Go to katusaresearch.com.
Trey Lockerbie (01:08:32):
Marin. Thanks again. Cheers.
Marin Katusa (01:08:35):
Stay well.
Trey Lockerbie (01:08:36):
All right, everybody. That’s all we had for you today. If you’re loving the show, go ahead and follow us on your favorite podcast app. Go ahead and check out the TIP Finance tool. Just Google TIP Finance, it should pop right up. Go ahead and give me a shout on Twitter @TreyLockerbie. Or if you have a question that you’d like to hear us answer on the show, go to asktheinvestors.com. And with that, we’ll see you again next time.
Outro (01:08:59):
Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to subscribe to Millennial Investing by The Investor’s Podcast Network and learn how to achieve financial independence. To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decision, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.
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BOOKS AND RESOURCES:
- Carbon Credits Website
- Yellow Cake Website
- Uranium Royalty Corp Website
- Marin Katusa’s new book, The Rise of America
- Katusa Research Website
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