BTC028: BITCOIN UPDATE

W/ PLAN B & DR. ADAM BACK

02 June 2021

On today’s show, Preston Pysh is joined by Plan B and Dr. Adam Back. They talk about the current market conditions, the Chinese mining migration to the West, the global macro implications of a trillion-dollar Bitcoin market drop of 50%, and much more.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • When will Bitcoin’s volatility potentially impact the broader global economy?
  • The current on-chain analytics.
  • China Mining update.
  • Bitcoin derivatives and how they impacted the sell-off.
  • Proof of Work versus Proof of Stake.
  • Security tradeoffs.
  • Are institutional investors still putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet?

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  • Adam Back’s Bitcoin company Blockstream.
  • Plan B’s website PlanBTC.com.
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TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Preston Pysh (00:00:02):
Hey everyone. Welcome to our Wednesday release of the podcast, where I’m talking about Bitcoin. On today’s show, we bring back by popular demand Dr. Adam Back who’s the CEO and founder of Blockstream. And we also have Plan B who’s the creator of The Stock-To-Flow model. On the show, we talk about the broader macro implications of Bitcoin reaching a market cap in excess of a trillion dollars, but still having market corrections of $500 billion. We talk about Chinese mining news. We talk about energy concerns and highlights. Additionally, we talk about the derivatives market and how it had an impact on the recent sell off. So if you’re looking for a good update from two of the smartest guys in the space, hang on tight, because here we go.

Intro (00:00:46):
You are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pysh.

Preston Pysh (00:01:05):
Hey everyone, welcome to the show. Like we said in the introduction, I’m here with Adam Back and Plan B. Gentlemen, welcome to the show.

Plan B (00:01:12):
Thank you.

Adam Back (00:01:13):
Thank you.

Preston Pysh (00:01:14):
All right. So where I want to start this off, I’ve done a lot of thinking as this price has just gotten punished over the last two months, a month and a half, or whatever it is. And one of the things at the top of the list is just systematic risk. A few months back, we saw WallStreetBets do the whole GME thing, and it had just a small kind of pittance of a market cap, but the implications of that were massive. So you had Melvin Capital, the Citadel had to come up with $2 billion. You had Point72 Asset Management. All of them were just… It created a mess in the financial markets.

Preston Pysh (00:01:58):
You saw the broader market selling off through some of this and it was only a $6 billion loss all around, but the implications of what you saw that this created in the overall market was kind of crazy. So when I think about Bitcoin having a market cap, it was well over a trillion dollars and it has a 50% drop in price. And so we’re talking $500 billion and that’s just Bitcoin alone. What in the world does this mean long-term when we think about the implications of the price potentially being higher? Maybe a Bitcoin price of 100,000, what would that mean for systematic risk? At what point is Bitcoin potentially wagging the tail of the regular market and how they’re going to have to respond with further liquidity? Is this something you guys have given much thought to?

Plan B (00:02:52):
Well, I think the Bitcoin market has some very high volatility and it’s just part of the market. And I find it really funny that we all knew at the beginning of the bull market, that we would not go up in a straight line and that there would be multiple minus 35 or minus 50% drops along the way, like it did in the 2017 and 2013 bull run. So now we have one, our first minus 35% dip month to month. And it feels like this is new and upsetting everything and changing everything, but it’s not. At least, in my opinion, it’s just a normal thing that is present in a market like Bitcoin that has also the returns that go with those high volatility. And we should expect those drops and not be afraid of them, make use of them.

Plan B (00:04:00):
Psychology is different because it feels like Bitcoin is dead every time. But you know there will be another minus 50% drop and a minus 35% drop. So I don’t think that structurally anything has changed. It’s just part of the growth of this market and part of the charm of this market as well, because you cannot have 200% annualized returns without volatility. And to be honest, minus 35% versus a plus 200% annualized return is still a bargain deal.

Preston Pysh (00:04:40):
Yeah. I guess where I’m getting at is, once we achieve a certain market cap in size, it’s almost like Bitcoin starts to become this thing that’s going to drive central banking policy because it’s so substantially large and has so much volatility, because I don’t think if we go to… Let’s just say the market cap goes to something like five trillion and it’s starting to become competitive with gold. I still think the volatility is going to be there. I don’t think the volatility is going to wane at that point. I think you’re still going to have aggressive volatility. And if true, and the market cap would be something of that magnitude, doesn’t this create a situation where central bankers are now having to respond because of the impairment that such volatility would cause to the overall market participants. You see where I’m going with that?

Plan B (00:05:41):
Yeah. Maybe. Yeah. And I agree that volatility will not go away. It will stay here. It’s part of what Bitcoin is. And let’s not forget that the stock market and especially the bond markets and a lot of other markets are less volatile because of the Central Bank, right? They step in, they rescue it, and they take out the volatility. And with it, they take out the returns. So Bitcoins feels like the only place in the world where capitalism or normal market behavior is still allowed. And yeah, there will be a point when the market steps in, but it doesn’t feel like this is now, it doesn’t feel like the central bank will rescue Bitcoin. Right?

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