TIP660: MASTERMIND Q3, 2024
W/ STIG BRODERSEN, TOBIAS CARLISLE AND HARI RAMACHANDRA
14 September 2024
In today’s episode, Stig Brodersen speaks to Tobias Carlisle and Hari Ramachandra. Stig only owns five individual stocks, and in this episode, he outlines why Betsson is one of them. Hari’s pick, Nintendo, is at an attractive spot in the console cycle, and Tobias pitches Virtu, a value stock trading at an appealing valuation.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
- Stig’s bull case is for Betsson (Ticker on the Swedish Stock Exchange: BETS).
- The bear case for Betsson, including their exposure to Turkey.
- Why Hari is bullish on Nintendo (Ticker on the Japanese Stock Exchange: 7974).
- The bear case of Nintendo, including their valuation.
- Why Toby has invested in Virtu Financial (Ticker on NASDAQ: VIRT).
- The bear case for Virtu, including a discussion of whether their service is superior.
TRANSCRIPT
Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.
[00:00:19] Stig Brodersen: And you’ll hopefully also hear the bare case of why you shouldn’t get ahead of yourself. Toby’s pick is Virtu Financial. It’s gone up from 18 to 29 since Toby originally pitched it here on the podcast. And Toby will outline why he’s still bullish and make sure to stay tuned for our discussion of whether the quality of the service is reflected in the price versus value ratio.
[00:00:40] Stig Brodersen: I am really excited about Hari’s pick Nintendo talk about high quality IP. The stock seems to be an attractive spot in the console cycle. And in this episode, we’ll discuss whether the valuation is cheaper than what it appears at first glance. I hope you enjoyed this episode as much as Toby, Hari, and I enjoyed recording it.
[00:01:00] Stig Brodersen: Without further ado, here is the Mastermind discussion for Q3 2024.
[00:01:08] Intro: Celebrating 10 years and more than 150 million downloads. You are listening to The Investor’s Podcast Network. Since 2014, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now, for your host, Stig Brodersen.
[00:01:37] Stig Brodersen: Welcome to The Investor’s Podcast. I’m your host, Stig Broderson, and we are here today for the Q3 mastermind discussion, Hari, Toby. It’s always great to see you gents.
[00:01:47] Tobias Carlisle: Thanks for having me, Stig. It’s great to see both of you guys, Hari. This is one of the highlights of my quarter.
[00:01:53] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah, always fun to be here, Stig and Toby.
[00:01:55] Hari Ramachandra: Thank you. Same to what Toby said. I always look forward to this mastermind.
[00:02:01] Stig Brodersen: Fantastic. So do I. And as always, we each pick a stock and I don’t know, we usually draw straws before we start the episode. I don’t think we did that today. So who wants to go first?
[00:02:13] Tobias Carlisle: I don’t mind actually, mine is pretty short and sweet.
[00:02:44] Tobias Carlisle: I don’t use these guys, but I use a market maker in my ETFs. And they buy and sell. And so they’re trying to clip out a penny when they trade. Citadel is the biggest in the market. They have about 40 percent market share. These guys are second at about 25 percent market share. They’re very, they’re sort of attached to the amount of trading that goes on in the stock market.
[00:03:04] Tobias Carlisle: When there’s a lot of trading, they make a lot of money. When there’s less trading, they make less money. So, you know, we had that big meme stock. Boom through 2020, 2021. That was when they did really, really well. They’ve done less well over this period of time, but it’s still a pretty good business.
[00:03:21] Tobias Carlisle: They’ve got a lot of debt in there, so that’s potentially concerning or it’s potentially something worth keeping an eye on. And I just noticed this morning it’s, they’ve tripped this Altman Z score. So I use a few, when I’m putting together the portfolios, I use Altman Z, Pietro, all of those sort of Olson, all these sort of little metrics for screening out earnings manipulation, fraud, financial distress, looking for financial strength, all that sort of stuff. I’ve never found any single one of them works well in isolation. I just use them all collectively to kind of find things because I think there’s really unlikely to be financial manipulation going on, or there’s always a little bit of financial manipulation, I should say, but you don’t get the real fraud until you get the financial distress.
[00:04:09] Tobias Carlisle: So it all seems to go together. These guys have got, they’ve triggered one, Altman Z, and I think that’s the debt levels and probably the business because of the cyclicality of the business. And it looks like it’s been getting a little bit weaker. Having said that, it’s still a very good business. They still make a lot of money.
[00:04:26] Tobias Carlisle: There’s not a lot of reinvestment required in the business. Everything that they do make kind of flows out, and so it flows out as a pretty fat dividend. When I pitched it last year, it was at 5%. It’s currently at 3.5 percent yield. But then they’re doing this big buyback constantly. So in 2020, they had like 122 million shares on issue.
[00:04:47] Tobias Carlisle: When I pitched in June last year, they had 95 million shares on issue. So they bought back a very material portion over that period. And they’re currently at 87 million shares. And so they bought back another 8 million. And that gives them a shareholder yield, which is the dividend plus the buyback over 10%.
[00:05:06] Tobias Carlisle: So the free cash flow is being redirected to shareholders basically, which is one of the things that I like. How this business goes through a downturn, you know, like a stock market crash, I don’t know. I think I said last time I was, I went back and I listened to the one that I, the TIP that I did before, you know, the last one that I did for this.
[00:05:27] Tobias Carlisle: And two things really stood out. One is I seem to think that they do really well through a crash. I don’t know if that’s true or not. I think that they probably will do a lot of trading, but the stock will get hammered. I don’t know about the business site. I’m probably less aggressive about how well they’re going to do through a period like that.
[00:05:44] Tobias Carlisle: And the other thing is I was very bearish when I was pitching that. And I just philosophically, I think that’s a bad stance to be in the market all the time. So sometimes since I recorded that, I’ve realized that it’s funny to be like, this old and making this realization, but basically no one can predict what the stock market is going to do regardless of what happens in the economy or macroeconomically, valuation, nothing really seems to drive the stock market and it’s completely random, unpredictable process.
[00:06:12] Tobias Carlisle: I was worried about the 10 3 inversion for a long time. The 10 3 has been inverted for a record period of time, doesn’t seem that anything matters anymore. So I’m not saying that I’m flipping bullish and that will bring on the giant downturn. I’m just saying, I don’t know. It’s unpredictable. Yeah. It wouldn’t surprise me if the market’s up 50 percent next year or down 50 percent next year, the range of outcomes is massive.
[00:06:33] Tobias Carlisle: And so I’m sort of out of that game of trying to pick what’s happening in the stock market and the economy. All I’m trying to do is look at little individual positions. So this is the way that I construct the portfolios for the, for Zig and for Deep is to take a group of businesses that generate pretty good free cash flow, do pretty well on the assets that they have, use that cash flow sensibly, reinvest where it makes sense, buy back stock and pay a dividend.
[00:07:00] Tobias Carlisle: Where that makes sense. I think these guys do both pretty well. It’s not a very big company. It’s very small. 2.5 billion dollar market cap. Enterprise value is 7.8. That tells you how much sort of net they’re carrying there. And from memory, I have to check this, but from memory, the enterprise value to EBIT was about 7.4 times and last time it was much cheaper than that. They’ve paid down some debt over the last 12 or so months since we spoke about them last. They’ve paid out plenty of money in terms of dividend. They’ve bought back some stock. I think it’s been like a, probably a representative period of time in the market.
[00:07:36] Tobias Carlisle: There was some good times and there was some bad times through that period. So I think the business is probably in about its steady state now. They pay out about half of what they generate. As a financial intermediary, as I said before, I don’t really know how it would go through a downturn, but I’m, I think that they’re probably going to survive and make it to the other side.
[00:07:53] Tobias Carlisle: They run by very experienced guys. So I think it’s a fair risk adjusted bet here. I don’t think it’s the most amazing thing I’ve ever seen. I don’t think it’s as good as it was, but I do think it’s a fair risk adjusted bet here. And it continues to be in my portfolios. We can rebalance out at any time in the future, but at the moment it’s still there.
[00:08:10] Tobias Carlisle: And I think it’s likely to be there because it’s still very It’s one of the cheaper things in my screens right now. So that’s Virtu Financial. Tell me what you think, fellas.
[00:08:19] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah. Thank you, Toby. See if I can go like a couple of questions. Toby, one thing that I wanted to ask you in general is, like, how you were saying, like, you know, it’s not the best, it’s not a screaming deal, it’s not like shooting fish in a barrel.
[00:08:33] Hari Ramachandra: Is it what you see generally in the market today, like, that it’s hard to find fish in a barrel?
[00:08:39] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah, I think that’s fair. I don’t think there are any obvious bargains around. I think that October 22, the opportunity was very obvious at that stage. I do sort of internal estimates for what the forward returns are.
[00:08:55] Tobias Carlisle: In the funds and I thought that was sort of. I would never say this publicly because this, you’re just inviting, you know, it sounds like Kathy would say 40%. I thought in October 22, it was like getting close to 20%, which I think is exceptionally high. That’s a crazy high return. Now, I would say it’s like, it’s closer to, you know, down the other end, closer to 13, something like that.
[00:09:13] Tobias Carlisle: So, I, that, that’s the sort of the size of the moot. Zig has, Zig’s portfolio has got more expensive and the other side of the portfolio getting more expensive is that Ford returns get lower. And so I think that that’s what’s happened over kind of coming up on 18 months or so. There are fewer things around and the economy does seem to me from the portfolio holdings, it does seem to be slowing a little bit.
[00:09:36] Tobias Carlisle: Hard to see how that kind of plays out because I think that I really, so through 2023, The, I thought the economy and the portfolio holding slowed, obviously, like there was a lot of slowing through there and it didn’t show up in an NBER, didn’t declare it a recession. The stock market didn’t wobble. The stock market’s just got more expensive since then.
[00:09:57] Tobias Carlisle: So, I don’t think I’m very good at, you know, extrapolating evaluation to what’s going to happen. So, I really have no idea. I just think that for something like Virtu, more trading is better. And there’s this general trend over time. Like clearly 2021 was an outlier and 2024 is not as big as 2021. But I think over time, there’s just generally more interest in the stock market.
[00:10:20] Tobias Carlisle: It’s bigger, more people trade. This is the sort of business that just grow in line with that over time. And it’ll be because it’s, you know, pretty cashflow generative. It’s, Doesn’t require a great deal of reinvestment. It just seems to mostly flow out and I use it to buy back stock. I think it’ll do pretty well provided it’s managed.
[00:10:38] Tobias Carlisle: That’s the risk that you always have with these businesses that they get a little bit too aggressive at the wrong part of the cycle. And there’s no bottom, but I think that they’re probably well managed enough. They’ll be fine through to the other side. But yeah, it’s not, it’s not as easy as it was in October 22, but there’s still some reasonable opportunities around.
[00:10:55] Hari Ramachandra: Thank you Toby. And my second question is. Is it fair to think of this business as a tollgate? And if yes, I’m curious why they have like almost 6 billion in debt. I would assume they’re like very asset light. They’re just a tollgate.
[00:11:10] Tobias Carlisle: Did you say to consider it as a tollgate?
[00:11:13] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah, because you’re saying like they’re going to take a fee for every transaction.
[00:11:17] Hari Ramachandra: So they’re just sitting and collecting fee for all transactions.
[00:11:20] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah, they don’t quite have, you know, it’s not like a monopoly because there is good competition out there. Citadel’s bigger. I’m sure they would like more market share. Citadel would like more market share. Virtu wants more market share.
[00:11:33] Tobias Carlisle: These guys trade every single market in the world, make a market in just about everything, all of these different securities and geographies. From that perspective, it’s a great little, you know, financial intermediary business. And I think those are pretty good businesses, pretty cashflow generative. I think that they use a lot of capital.
[00:11:50] Tobias Carlisle: They use a lot of debt capital to support that. They could use equity capital for it, but then their returns are much lower. I think they can run the business on, on debt and it juices their returns up. I think that because they’re on both sides of the trades all the way through, they’re pretty well armed, but they may carry some of this on their balance sheet as well.
[00:12:08] Tobias Carlisle: But you know, they don’t really like to do that. They’re trying to hold it for a very short period of time and get it off the balance sheet. And the debt probably helps them do that. It’s a business that I think it will be a little bit cyclical. And if you look at it, you know, it looks like it’s run up to some stock price and then run back.
[00:12:25] Tobias Carlisle: It’s only been public since like 2015. And you can see it runs up and down. It looks like it’s sort of been in a range for a really long period of time. And if anything, it looks like it’s closer to the top of its range here. I didn’t really, you know, I’m not a stock market chart guy. I’m looking at the fundamentals here and they’ve, they have bought back a lot of stock over that period of time.
[00:12:42] Tobias Carlisle: And they have been quite cashflow generative and it’s been a pretty wild period in the markets and they’ve made it through well unscathed on the other side, could be more wild in the future. And I don’t know how they go in a 2007, eight, nine touch scenario, but I think that they in pretty good shape here.
[00:12:59] Tobias Carlisle: So I think it’s, I think it’s a reasonable bet and I just in my portfolios, if this is a 3. 3 percent position, I’m not putting on 20 percent positions or anything crazy like that. Just so everybody knows I size these things fairly small and I rebalance back to 3. 3 whenever I rebalance. So don’t go putting the whole lot on this thing.
[00:13:17] Tobias Carlisle: I don’t recommend that.
[00:13:19] Stig Brodersen: I like that you say that Toby, because whenever I’m going to pitch my stock, I’m going to say it’s one of the five stocks that I own. So, but anyways, Toby, I’m hesitant to ask you this question because I’m very worried that you’re going to ask me the same question in which I probably won’t have a good answer.
[00:13:35] Stig Brodersen: So I should probably, I should preface why I’m asking this question here. And then Toby can retaliate whenever I’m going to make my pits afterwards. But I remember back in the day, whenever I was teaching at the local college and we were doing a lot of company presentation and they had to do, you know, different type of analysis.
[00:13:50] Stig Brodersen: And one of the things that most students highlighted regardless of the company was that they had the best product in the industry. And whenever you hear it enough times, you sort of like you and you have to ask questions as the teacher there. And you’re so you’re going to ask questions like, how do you know what’s your source?
[00:14:07] Stig Brodersen: And this is probably just me being like grumpy old man. But you know, very often they would say like, I read it on the website and you’re like, well, you know, we have to talk about sources here. Like if they say on the website, they’re great. They’re probably a bit biased. And so one of the things we’re working on was.
[00:14:23] Stig Brodersen: How can we come up with objective measures for various products to say when is something better because very often was so that the company that we’re looking at had the best product. And I’ve seen that same tendency whenever I am, I’m reading different analysis of different companies, you know, if there are four competitors and I would read about all four, it would always be highlighted by the person and the person who is like doing the analysis is typically always bullish because otherwise they don’t want to spend time creating analysis in the first place if they’re not bullish.
[00:14:48] Stig Brodersen: Okay. And so whenever I’m looking at something like Virtu and I’m comparing to citadel, I can’t wonder, but ask why are they better? Like, why is Virtu a better product?
[00:14:57] Tobias Carlisle: For example, I don’t know that it is a better product than citadel. I think that what do you want in a market maker is coverage of many, many different securities and Commodities and markets and Virtu offer that, and that’s probably from the people who engage a market maker, which is like, so if my ETFs need a market maker, maybe you can get away without a market maker.
[00:15:20] Tobias Carlisle: I don’t know, but they’re the ones who stand, they create the bid ask. They sit on either side of the spread. They make their money as people trade on either side of the spread, and they do that across a very large range. Of products and that requires industry knowledge and, you know, an enormous technological capability.
[00:15:41] Tobias Carlisle: It’s hard to get into that cold. So there is some pretty significant barriers to entry there. But having said that, they’re not the biggest, there’s a bigger one there and it’s probably fair to ask, what are they doing? That’s not as good as their competitor. And honestly, I don’t know the answer that there are a lot of these financial intermediaries around you can.
[00:16:00] Tobias Carlisle: When you’re setting up any sort of business that interfaces with the stock market. You’re probably engaging with one of these. The costs are paid by the traders, paid by the consumer, paid by market participants who sit on either side of these trades. And so it’s sort of, it’s a little bit of an invisible cost.
[00:16:19] Tobias Carlisle: That was the complaint about Robin Hood that they were selling order flow information, but they were able to like let people trade for free because they made so much money on the spread and it’s selling the information. And these guys are a little bit in the same. I don’t know what they do with the information, they could very well be selling the information, but I think they’re the end consumer of the information.
[00:16:37] Tobias Carlisle: So they’re just creating a market. It feels like anybody could do that, but I think there is some risk in it and it’s technologically difficult. So that’s the barrier to entry there. I don’t know that it’s the best product out there. I think everybody is basically offering kind of comparable terms and maybe they’re trying to get those spreads tighter, but.
[00:16:53] Tobias Carlisle: You used to be able to trade more tightly on small cap stocks, and they’ve blown out the spread there legislatively a few years ago to five cents. Who really knows what goes on the dark arts of lobbying to get you spread a little bit wider? I don’t know how that works, but these guys have done pretty well through, I think, what’s been a tumultuous period in the markets.
[00:17:12] Tobias Carlisle: You had the 2020 flash crash for the COVID, and then you had the crazy run through all of 2021 with the meme stocks. And all of the just bananas action that’s happened since then, it’s probably calming down a little bit, but the very next thing in the market could be a giant crash or giant rally. I have no idea.
[00:17:30] Tobias Carlisle: It’s not a, it’s not a, it’s not a simple kind of markets to survive. And so I think the fact that they have survived is pretty good evidence that they can, they, they will continue to do that. Doesn’t mean they’ve got the best product, but they’ve got a competitive product at least.
[00:17:44] Stig Brodersen: This is more like a process question more than necessarily to Virtu that has run up a bit.
[00:17:49] Stig Brodersen: I’m kind of curious to hear how you avoid value traps. And so you’re looking at something like Virtu that’s, let’s say, trading a low multiple again, it’s run up. So let’s just more talk about process and then say, okay, like the stock price are moving sideways. Fundamentals still look solid, but also sideways.
[00:18:09] Stig Brodersen: You are paying the opportunity cost of, of time. You’re betting on meaning version to happen. How long can something be on your screen before you’re like, no, I just waited two, three, five years. I don’t know how long it would wait. And then that mean version just doesn’t happen. And you look elsewhere or do you just stick with it and say, I know that this is what should happen.
[00:18:28] Stig Brodersen: So I’m just sticking to my guns.
[00:18:31] Tobias Carlisle: I think that value traps are very hard to identify prospectively. I don’t think you know that you’ve got a value trap until five years later and it hasn’t done anything. I think you just kind of have to trust the fact that there’s enough turnover in the portfolio and there’s enough competition for positions in the portfolio.
[00:18:46] Tobias Carlisle: Something You know, if it stays good and cheap, that’s great. Like that’s the ideal scenario. I always give the comparison, you know, Motley Fool used to run these ads of IBM and Tootsie Roll, and IBM was a great business that it was very expensive. Tootsie Roll was also an unknown great business that didn’t grow a lot.
[00:19:03] Tobias Carlisle: IBM was a very high growth business. Tootsie Roll was not a high growth business, but it was a high return on invested capital business. And all of that capital It was tough for them to reinvest in the business ’cause it’s not like kids are eating more and more. Tootsie Rolls over time, all of it was just redirected to buybacks and dividends and that was an outstanding performer.
[00:19:21] Tobias Carlisle: Even though it didn’t ever get more expensive, you know, it was, it was always cheap for the entire holding period. That’s really your ideal stock. You want something that’s very, very good business that nobody knows about, nobody ever pays up for, and you just sit in this thing for the rest of your life while it keeps on giving you those high returns and invested capital.
[00:19:39] Tobias Carlisle: It’s not compounding, but by Virtu of the fact that it’s buying back stock, you’re holding in it as compounding. That’s a little bit what’s happening here. Holding is compounding. There’s a little bit of margin, you know, sort of multiple expansion. I’ve been invested in lots of value traps and I’ve spent a lot of time trying to figure it out.
[00:19:56] Tobias Carlisle: I think that business is so unpredictable, it’s so hard to see often what’s going to happen in the future that you really just can’t know. And so I think that’s why I like to hold 30 positions because there’s always something happening in 30 positions. They’re moving up and down and they’re bouncing around and there are positions that are trying to come in, positions that are getting expensive and some things are sitting there.
[00:20:16] Tobias Carlisle: You know, Dillard’s, which is a holding of mine, but was not when, you know, Dillard’s, one of Buffett’s lieutenants held Dillard’s and he held it for the seven years and it really didn’t do anything for first six years of his holding period. But then through COVID, they reduced their inventory and they had some cash flows come in and the thing mooned and it continues to be very cheap, I think, which is why I hold it. But I held it on and off for that period for exactly that reason that I just thought kind of looks like dead money. And then I missed the big move in Dillard’s, which, you know, I think it ended up being like a 35 percent compound holding period for whichever one of Buffett’s lieutenants held it.
[00:20:51] Tobias Carlisle: But it all came in one year where it like went up 10 times or something like that. So I think you just need to be patient, entertain yourself with the other things in the portfolio, doing things, not that that’s necessarily true for Virtu, just. As a general principle, I don’t worry about it. I try not to turn the portfolio over unless the opportunities that are coming in you know, there’s a, they’re materially better than the things that are going on.
[00:21:14] Stig Brodersen: It’s just, it’s so hard. And I also know that was like another very unreasonable question for me to ask. Cause it’s like, if we could all identify a value trap, we wouldn’t be invested in the first place. And some of you probably also heard the irony of, you know, I was asking about how to identify a value trap.
[00:21:31] Stig Brodersen: And then Toby was like, You just have to be patient. I was like, that is exactly, that’s actually true. And exactly also the problem. Like you have to be patient. So fantastic.
[00:21:41] Tobias Carlisle: It’s tough, man. Look, I think it’s 50, 50. I think, you know, when you philosophically, like I know historically in my funds, it’s about 50, 50, I’m right on about 50 and wrong and about, and the market’s right on 50.
[00:21:51] Tobias Carlisle: The expectation is the market is right about everything. And so when the market is wrong, the rewriting is quite significant. And that’s how you get the outperformance. And you hope that you’re buying so cheaply that. When it turns out that the market was right, your estimate is, you know, comparable to the market and so you don’t lose much.
[00:22:08] Tobias Carlisle: That’s the theory. Of course, there’s a lot of movement around, but the idea would be it’s asymmetric in the sense that if the market is wrong and the financial statements reflect the business into the future, that you get that big rewriting up. And if the market is right, and the financial statements sort of come down, the business comes down to where the market estimate is, then you haven’t lost that much because that was what the market already thought anyway.
[00:22:31] Tobias Carlisle: So that’s why I think about it.
[00:22:33] Hari Ramachandra: Actually, this was a great question, Stig. Thanks for asking and fantastic discussion. Like, I think the key takeaway for me, Toby, for what you answered is, you’ve got to be willing to kiss few frogs to find the prince. So if you say like, I will never get into a value trap, you probably will not find those undervalued gems as well.
[00:22:55] Tobias Carlisle: I think that’s right. I think you have to be prepared to put stuff on where, you know, all of the problems with it and everybody else knows all the problems with it. And the risk is that you look dumb because you put it on and everybody knew it was wrong with it. And then that is what actually happens.
[00:23:09] Tobias Carlisle: But there’s enough times where, you know, and meta is a good example of that, where everybody knew what the problems with meta were. Mark Zuckerberg spending all this money on the metaverse. It’s like 12 billion a year. TikTok’s such a better product, so much more addictive than Instagram. The blue book’s disappearing.
[00:23:26] Tobias Carlisle: All of that was a compelling narrative that I heard at the time and 100 percent believes myself, but the thing was quantitatively cheap. It was half price when we put it on and then we bought it again. Like, was it a value trap? I think we bought it at like half price, what quantitatively it was worth.
[00:23:42] Tobias Carlisle: And then it went down to one third quantitatively what we thought it was worth. And that was a, that’s a pretty big drop and bought more of it down one third because that’s, we rebalance, the position goes up. If the position’s gone down, it rebalances up to, to equal weight. And I didn’t feel good about it at any point through there ’cause everybody else seemed to be right. And the stocks price was telling me that I was wrong. But fortunately for me, I don’t rely on my own intuition about these things. I just do it quantitatively and it goes in the portfolio. There’s always that risk, every single position. This one could virtually could be a disaster, could blow up completely.
[00:24:15] Tobias Carlisle: And I’m on record talking about it on the famous investors podcast. So I’m cruising for a bruising here, but on balance across a portfolio, the way that I construct the portfolio, my expectation is that the returns are sort of sufficient to justify the risk that is taken. And then I try to minimize risk and that’s, that’s all you can do really.
[00:24:34] Tobias Carlisle: And ignore the crowd.
[00:24:36] Stig Brodersen: Thank you so much, Toby. Wonderful, wonderful discussion. Hari, would you like me to go first or would you like to pitch your pick?
[00:24:43] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah, I can pitch, Stig. So my, mine is continuing with the theme of, it’s very hard to find undervalued stocks today, as Toby was saying, and also be willing to bet on few companies.
[00:24:57] Hari Ramachandra: That might be looking bad. Like we are talking about meta where the things that are not going their way So in that light my pick is nintendo And I promised my son so i’m going to give the credit to him He said you gotta give credits where it is due because I discovered this talk Thanks to him because me and his friend.
[00:25:17] Hari Ramachandra: He’s a high schooler a freshman in high school. He and his friends I see them all the time Raving about some of the Nintendo games, like Super Mario. In fact, like I have hard time limiting his gaming time. And I also discovered through him a huge ecosystem of people on YouTube and other platforms, making a lot of money just playing games.
[00:25:43] Hari Ramachandra: I and Stig were just talking before the show, where I was telling Stig that you’re spending so much of your effort producing all these podcasts. And there are this bunch of kids, like 15 year olds, 18 year olds, just streaming their act of playing games. All they’re doing is talking and playing games.
[00:26:03] Hari Ramachandra: It’s not scripted. And it’s like half an hour, one hour video. And it has millions of views as thinking Stig is in the wrong business.
[00:26:11] Stig Brodersen: I am in the wrong business. I typed up in bullet form, five pages of notes to do like a 50 minutes pitch. I’m so much in the wrong business. Sorry.
[00:26:21] Hari Ramachandra: So when I looked at that, I got very curious.
[00:26:25] Hari Ramachandra: So of course my son also helped with a lot of research. He was so enthusiastic. Whenever I used to bring up PlayStation and Xbox, he would be passionately defending Nintendo and throwing back at me data and some of these data from him, actually, like I didn’t know that among all the top 50 in the history games produced.
[00:26:48] Hari Ramachandra: Almost half of all the most popular games in the history is from Nintendo. Whether it is Super Mario, Zelda, Farm Animals, and I don’t remember all the names, Pokemon. Those are the ones that I remember. More than half is from Nintendo. The distant second is Activision with only four games. And the other thing is all these games, they are basically been there for more than 30 years.
[00:27:17] Hari Ramachandra: They’re, they’re into game console business for almost 40 plus years. And most of these games are like, you know, 20, 30 years in the making. So that means they’re, they’re running their 10 sequels or 11 sequels and still very popular. So there are generations who have grown up on these games. And the other, other speciality of them, I see them as like Apple and Disney combined in the gaming world, in the sense that they are a vertically integrated player, they produce most of their own games, they have their own gaming console, and then they have created a niche for themselves in the sense that if somebody has a PlayStation, they would normally not have X Box because.
[00:28:02] Hari Ramachandra: They’re competing gaming consoles and they are for serious power gamers, but Nintendo got out this niche for casual gamers, family gamers, and many kids get introduced to Nintendo into the gaming world. So if you have a PlayStation, you still might have a Nintendo Switch, for example, or if you have an Xbox, you might still have a Nintendo Switch, but not PlayStation or Xbox and vice versa.
[00:28:29] Hari Ramachandra: So they have carved out this niche as a family casual gaming, and I can see that my daughter is also picking up. She’s like 6 year old. And they make it very easy for kids to get into game. And because of that, their majority of their profit actually comes from software because that’s where the margins are.
[00:28:50] Hari Ramachandra: It’s like 80 percent plus margins in their software business. And if you look at their overall margin, they are around 32 percent now, and it’s consistently growing. So they’re. Revenue is growing at around 11 percent year over year for many years now. Of course, it’s a cyclical business. So sometimes there might be a spike in the revenue when their new gaming console is released.
[00:29:12] Hari Ramachandra: They have the record of the most number of consoles sold at 863 million in the history And the second place goes to PlayStation with around 600 million and Xbox is at 187 million. So that shows their dominance, but their revenue kind of, you know, fluctuates because of that. Say for example, in 2021, they had recorded around 16. 5 billion in revenue. In 2017, there were only four. In 2023, there are 11 billion. One of the things that the, and this is where the risk also is, is that Right now the market is not very pleased with them because they delayed the release of their latest gaming console switch next version because of that they were punished.
[00:30:00] Hari Ramachandra: Actually, had I pushed it a month back, it would have been much better. Price, now the price has recovered a bit. So it’s, I would wait frankly for, this is not a place where I would be like very excited to buy, but just going back to this trend, they have been consistently growing their profit margins.
[00:30:18] Hari Ramachandra: Their free cash flow is growing at around 22 or 23 percent earnings per share is growing at around 28, 29 percent per year. That’s because of a lot of buybacks they do. They have a cash position of around 14. 2 billion and their total debt is only 4 billion. So they’re like very secure balance sheet.
[00:30:41] Hari Ramachandra: Their enterprise value is around 45 or 46 billion and give me to a bit is around 10. 6 billion. So not really cheap. The reason I am interested in this is it’s more like a venture, but because They are orchestrating a transformation or change in the direction. So what they’re doing now is basically instead of just being a, there was console and all their games were restricted to their own console.
[00:31:13] Hari Ramachandra: They’re opening up to mobile gaming. They’re also opening up to franchising their characters. They’re also getting into movie business with their Super Mario character. In fact, in 2023, Super Mario grossed around 1. 3 or 1. 4 billion and I watched that movie with my son. It was a big craze and their gaming business with Pokemon Go.
[00:31:37] Hari Ramachandra: Had 1 billion plus downloads. Now they’re getting into augmented reality and Pokemon is a great example of a company getting into augmented reality successfully. And we know how AR and VR is still in a nascent phase. And I think Nintendo is poised with their experience to take advantage of that. They have done it time and again.
[00:32:00] Hari Ramachandra: If you look at their history from gaming arcades to new platforms. They’ve always been able to leapfrog and take advantage of the next trend. So for me, this is a long term hold because I believe they have a very safe franchise. They have a very loyal customer base and they’re poised as one of the key players who can take advantage of new technology trends that might come in.
[00:32:29] Hari Ramachandra: And also they have the track record of producing really engaging games and they can leverage their existing games to get into the new technology trend. So that’s kind of the pitch on the company. Valuation wise, I do know like, and I was ready for you guys to rip me apart on the valuation. So, I, I would say it is not compelling at this point and I’m Toby and stick, I’m looking forward to your questions there, but either I will wait and put it on my watch list, but this is a company I believe is a keeper at least for next 5 to 10 years.
[00:33:08] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah, I think it’s a great pick. I love Nintendo. I think it’s a fantastic business. That IP is just invaluable at this point. I agree with you about the games are all fantastic, really fun games to play. My kids watch that movie and they will watch that over and they’ll watch that anytime. They’re happy to keep on watching that and they badger me constantly for the little handheld game and for like a console to play it on.
[00:33:33] Tobias Carlisle: They love all of that stuff. So that’s pretty good. That’s Peter Lynch, by what you know, I’ve never bought it, but I’ve, I’ve heard a few pitches for it over the years. I love every single time I hear the pitch. I love it. I actually don’t think it’s that crazy over value. I don’t think it’s over value. I think there’s a reasonable argument that it’s kind of, I mean, I don’t know if the business is flattered by the fact that they’ve had.
[00:33:51] Tobias Carlisle: You know, I don’t know how, like they’ve gone through some sort of like, I know they have to, they turn over the console and then there’s new games and it’s a little bit, I don’t understand that cycle. So I’m just looking at the numbers here, but I, you know, the growth has been pretty consistent, pretty good.
[00:34:05] Tobias Carlisle: If you expect that to go on into the future, you know, there’s an argument that it’s, it’s pretty good value here. Even though it’s run up a lot and it looks, I think that multiples are kind of more expensive than they have been over the, over the recent past. But I still think on an absolute basis, it’s not bad value and you know, great business.
[00:34:23] Tobias Carlisle: You know, there’s no question about the quality of the business. I think the quality of the business is phenomenal. People love the characters. It’s been around for a long time. It’s embedded in multiple generations. Now, you know, I remember Nintendo when I was a kid, my kids, interested in it. So it’s like that kind of enduring longevity.
[00:34:39] Tobias Carlisle: I agree. It’s something like Disney, Apple. There’s a lot to love about this stock. I really like it. I’m just as Perry’s pitching and I’m wondering why I don’t own it personally. The only strange thing is when I pull up the stock price chart and I go back to the max, which my, my little doesn’t get on Google here, it goes back to 1998.
[00:34:57] Tobias Carlisle: So 26 years, something like that. And it’s only up about four. And a bit times over that period, and it’s had a few, it had a monster run up to 2007 and then it had a run up again to 2021. It’s had a little bit of a run up now, but it looks a little bit boom bust, but the business, I don’t think is boom bust.
[00:35:20] Tobias Carlisle: I think the business is pretty solid. It’s one of those, I don’t, I don’t, I don’t know why the stock chart looks like it does. I was expecting to look at the stock chart and see this ramp like that and then have Hari pitching and telling, then having to worry about the very top of that ramp, but it doesn’t look like that at all.
[00:35:33] Tobias Carlisle: I don’t know. I think this is a really good pick. I think it’s a really interesting stock. Good job, Hari.
[00:35:39] Hari Ramachandra: Cool. Thank you, Toby. I think just one couple of comments on Toby’s points there. Yeah, that’s a very good observation. Like the boom bust. It’s like a boom bust. It’s like a cyclical business almost and looking at the quality of the business, you wouldn’t expect that.
[00:35:53] Hari Ramachandra: But you will see that in the revenue. Also, you see that in the stock price, as you were saying.
[00:35:58] Tobias Carlisle: What drives the gaming cycle?
[00:36:01] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah, the dates you were mentioning are all related to their new console launches. And that’s one of the issues with them is like, they were all cassettes earlier and the games were not transferred from one platform to the other.
[00:36:16] Hari Ramachandra: And what would happen is they would move from one platform to the next platform. And some of their platforms were not a hit because people have to buy the new games for that platform all over again. And they will not probably migrate to that platform that well. Even PlayStation has that issues, but now all of them, not just Nintendo are gradually moving to subscription business in the sense that there is no longer guess it’s all downloadable games. So it’s a digital game. So you get to keep the game even when you move to the next platform. So you might be incentivized more to buy the next platform. However, having said that, they’re always prone to this boom bust kind of issue so far because of the success of their gaming console.
[00:37:03] Hari Ramachandra: And this comes in like every few years once they have to, you keep launching new gaming console. according to the technologies and whatever available at that point of time. And sometimes it’s PlayStation who wins, sometimes it’s Xbox, sometimes it’s Nintendo. So depending on that, when in case of Microsoft and Sony, they have other businesses to buffer that, but Nintendo is a pure play.
[00:37:27] Hari Ramachandra: So if you want a pure gaming play, I think that’s Nintendo, but it comes with that cost.
[00:37:33] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah, great, great IP, instantly recognizable IP across the world and generationally. So that’s, that’s very, very powerful. I think they’ve got the best of Disney and as you say, and some aspects of Apple there as well.
[00:37:45] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah. Very, very attractive business.
[00:37:48] Stig Brodersen: Perhaps the best from Disney without the bat, but you absolutely right. It has a lot of the same attributes and you know, it’s, it’s, it’s wonderful. Whenever you have something like Mario brothers, where you own the IP, it’s, you don’t have to reinvent the wheel. Like let’s say you worked for a lot of movie franchises.
[00:38:05] Stig Brodersen: So it’s interesting. And I would agree with you on, on the valuation. I don’t think it’s, it’s that high, but that also factors in where I think we are in the cycle, the console cycle. Which I could very much be wrong about and in preparation for this call here, I read an analysis where they plotted all the difference.
[00:38:27] Stig Brodersen: So, so like, like Nintendo 64, GameCube, Wii, Switch One, now there’s going to be the, the other switch. So they don’t have the same platform issue to, to Hari’s point like they have if they’re completely moving away. So I think if you factor that in, you could probably argue that it’s, I don’t want to say cheap, but it certainly doesn’t look too expensive.
[00:38:48] Stig Brodersen: And then I also can’t help but wonder if that is the case with the console cycle. And everyone knows that. Why do we then still see it? Cause it’s quite evident when you look at the numbers, which is just, it’s just fascinating itself. That’s probably because we’re all just all people. So it’s hard for us not to be, not to be caught up in that.
[00:39:06] Stig Brodersen: I like the pick. I think it’s a high quality pick, a clear IP. There is a, there’s a moat around it. And I also find it interesting that they are, and it it’s not with, with a big part of their earnings, I want to say it’s like 10 percent-ish, but like they’re going into a slightly different model, for example, with a, with a theme park that Universal Studios are, are running for them.
[00:39:29] Stig Brodersen: I read there was almost like a half a billion dollars and then they’re operating it. And we’re sort of like buying the IP and you know, the good things about that. And it’s, it’s one of those things that are probably in the too hard basket for me to figure out if that’s, if that’s a good thing, especially whenever, like, so whenever you read about retailers, for example, some retailers would own their own property.
[00:39:47] Stig Brodersen: And so you would read the bull analysis and it would say, they all own properties. That’s, that’s amazing. Cause you know, they own it. And as we all know, it’s better to own the properties. Then you read about the other retailer and it says, oh, they’re leasing it. And as we all know, it’s always better to lease it.
[00:40:01] Stig Brodersen: So whenever I was reading about, about the theme parks and how they were licensing the IPOs, like that is so good. Cause they don’t have all of these costs. They only get the, I was like, I don’t know. Ask Disney. You know, like, I don’t know if it’s truly a better model. It’s probably one of those where you have a certain confirmation bias.
[00:40:18] Stig Brodersen: And if you like the pick, you also think it’s the right strategy for them.
[00:40:21] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah. I think you both are helping me make the pitch better and fine tune it. Actually, I forgot to mention about the theme park. Thank you for bringing that up. I think that’s not material at this point of time, from the revenue perspective, it’s an experiment, I would say, so they’re trying to diversify their revenue streams, but then franchising to Universal Studios in this case, I’m supposed to visit next time my son is kind of, you know, really pressing me hard on that to go to Universal Studios because now they have Super Mario there.
[00:40:53] Hari Ramachandra: But I, I see this more as deepening their presence in our, in the mindshare of people basically through these theme parks are franchisee. Now you can, you go to target, you will see Legos with Super Mario and dolls of Super Mario. So that they’re doing everything that Disney does basically with their characters because they’re so iconic characters.
[00:41:15] Hari Ramachandra: In fact, in 2014 Olympics, the prime minister of Japan dressed up as Super Mario, I heard.
[00:41:22] Tobias Carlisle: That’s right. Yeah. I remember seeing that at the Olympics. Yeah.
[00:41:25] Hari Ramachandra: So I think that this is a good strategy, marketing strategy. So I don’t see it as a, as a profit center, but more as a cost center for them so that they can gain more mindshare among the population through these theme parks and franchises.
[00:41:41] Hari Ramachandra: I think the, the real, the real meat is in there. In the games, because that’s the, that’s probably 80 percent of their revenue with 75 percent or more in in profit margins. So that’s where they, the real money comes in. But that’s a good point, Stig. So I, I don’t know how this strategy of getting into theme park goes.
[00:42:01] Hari Ramachandra: I don’t, they don’t, they should not aspire to be too much of a Disney with resorts and theme parks and all that will be quite capital intensive.
[00:42:10] Tobias Carlisle: Do you know what is funny? It’s just like Stig was saying before, I was thinking exactly the same thing. It’s great that they don’t have those Disney theme parks, completely forgetting that I was at Universal Studios with my kids, like in the last six months.
[00:42:21] Tobias Carlisle: And we went and that was one of the things that they really wanted to see. They really want to go in and have a look at the Nintendo display because they recognize all of the characters and they want to go in and look in there. I think, yeah, the IP is just invaluable, particularly because, you know, the movie is all references to my generation’s stuff.
[00:42:40] Tobias Carlisle: So it appeals to me and it appeals to my kids at the same time. And I think they did a good job. It wasn’t just recognizing the rescuing the princess. She was sort of driving the story more and more involved, which is great. If you got a daughter, you know, she’s a little bit more active in the story. I thought they did a really good job of the whole thing.
[00:42:55] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah. Indeed. I enjoyed that movie too.
[00:42:58] Stig Brodersen: All right, gents. Let’s jump to my pick here. So in my next life, I want to be as smart as Toby and have 30 stocks. I don’t know. I, I just don’t think I’m wired that way. I have five stocks and I’m going to talk about one of those stocks here today. And it’s Betsson. It trades on the Swedish stock exchange under the ticker BETS, of course.
[00:43:19] Stig Brodersen: And then OTC in the States as BTSBF. It’s only north more than a billion dollars ish. So it’s a very small company and it’s a, it’s a gambling company. And the way it came on my radar was because I recently took a small position in evolution gaming and to fully understand evolution. And I still hold that it’s like a 1 percent or whatever it is of my portfolio.
[00:43:43] Stig Brodersen: You know, one thing is to read the filings, which I did. But really to understand it, you also want to read the filings of competitors, customers, basically really understand the stakeholders. And so one of the customers are Betsson. So I was thinking, why not read their 10K and see what I can learn about how they work together.
[00:44:01] Stig Brodersen: And then I realized I probably liked Betsson more than, than evolution. So I, I doubled down on Betsson and right now it’s roughly 9 percent of my public portfolio. And Betsson offers gambling and sports betting, online casino. The business model is relatively simple. They attract players onto the platform and they bet against the house.
[00:44:21] Stig Brodersen: And no surprise, on average, the house wins. And then they pocket the difference. And whenever it comes to gambling, online gambling, it’s very scalable. You know, you, you have the software it’s about bringing in people. And of course there’s a marketing expenses to that, but it scales pretty well. Of course, regulators also know that.
[00:44:41] Stig Brodersen: So you are taxed three times whenever you are in that industry, just so you know, so you pay for a license. Then you pay a part of your winnings, and then you also pay corporate tax on your profits. So you get taxed quite a few times there. It is a good business and the EBIT margin are north of 20%. Betsson now has 10 consecutive quarters where operating income are at an all time high.
[00:45:06] Stig Brodersen: So they definitely have a lot of tailwind. Now let’s talk about competitive advantage and competitors. I would probably make the claim that they don’t have a competitive advantage. Then you might ask the question, why would you invest in a company that doesn’t have a moat? I generally come from the mindset that the vast majority of companies, they do not have a moat.
[00:45:29] Stig Brodersen: And if they have one, it’s, it’s very narrow and there was just someone who’s waiting to storm your castle. A really good sign of a company having a mode is that the GFJ is all over them and talking about how much they have a monopoly. And then the company in response would say, oh no, look at poor me. We don’t have any moat at all.
[00:45:49] Stig Brodersen: We don’t have any monopoly. We just such a small fish in a big pond. That’s whenever you know that you have a real mode. If a company tells you too much about that, they have a mode and they’re training at eight times earnings, they don’t have a mode. Anyways, Betton is competing in a tough field. There are so many operators out there, both public, but also private.
[00:46:11] Stig Brodersen: And I also want to say that if you look at it, there might be, it looked like there were hundreds and hundreds. There are some consolidation and the bigger players, the holding companies, including Betsson, even though Betsson, one of the smaller ones, they have a lot of brands. Under them. So if you’re based in the States, for example, you might be familiar with FanDuel.
[00:46:29] Stig Brodersen: So that’s owned by Flutter. And they also own PokerStars, Betfair, Paddy Power, and so many others. And it’s the same thing with Betsson that owns more than 20 brands. So there are not as many companies out there. They are operated by some of the same companies. So let’s say that Betsson’s main sport, by far, that’s football.
[00:46:48] Stig Brodersen: Sorry for our American listeners. And so, but, but they also, you know, they also have a brand Bitsafe that’s very much tailored to the basketball industry. So they get players through that, through those sponsorships, but then they will go into the same platform as everyone who are watching football and betting on football.
[00:47:06] Stig Brodersen: And then there’s a funnel to the casino games afterwards. So they have different entry points, but it’s sort of all a funnel to the same place. And the way that Betsson has been growing, and they’re growing at 15 percent annually while they’re paying a 50 percent payout ratio, I should say. But the way that they have grown, for example, recently in Belgium with their acquisition of BetFirst, is that they very much buy their license.
[00:47:27] Stig Brodersen: So a company like BetFirst, they didn’t have the full suite suite of games, but then Betsson come in and say, we’re basically buying the company, but we’re really buying the license. And there are a ton of different licenses, whether it’s for sports bidding, with time and sports bidding. Live casino, online casino, all of that good stuff.
[00:47:43] Stig Brodersen: So they roll out and scale the business in different countries through that. So whenever you look here at a company at 8. 8 times earnings, there must be some hair on it. And the answer is absolutely yes. Aside from them not having a moat, there’s definitely some, some hair on it. So one of them is they have exposure to Turkey.
[00:48:05] Stig Brodersen: They don’t really talk too much about it in the filings, probably for good reason, but they indirectly have an exposure, I should say. So they made a deal with Realm back in 2010. At the time it was sold for only 1. 9 million euros, which was seen to be a very, very low amount. So I’ll imagine that They have a very attractive deal in place for them.
[00:48:24] Stig Brodersen: So if you, if you read the 10K, I think that’s what they put in as licensing fees. So there’s like this very interesting thing. They don’t talk too much about. And so it’s something that could go away again. It hasn’t gone away, but you, you, you would have to factor that in. I would also imagine that the margins are pretty good on that deal.
[00:48:42] Stig Brodersen: And so it’s 25 percent of the business that can go away. So it’s up to you how much you want to To weigh that probability into your thesis, then you have the piece of regulation. And you can argue that regulation can be as much of a, of a tailwind as it could be a headwind. There are in many different countries.
[00:49:01] Stig Brodersen: It’s not like they’re only one country. And then if they shut it down, then, you know, the business is just gone. So take it for what, for what it is. But whenever a new market opens, it’s typically a way for operators like Betsson to expand their operations. Operators can also operate in unregulated markets, but it’s sort of like slightly different.
[00:49:19] Stig Brodersen: They don’t in that case pay taxes, but they also can’t market typically. And then the, the third thing I wanted to talk about was that I had a chance to do a bit of a scuttlebutt research. And so I asked someone who was an insider and he was, he was willing to, to jump on a call with me and I asked him the the silver bullet question.
[00:49:37] Stig Brodersen: So the Warren Buffett silver quest, like, like who’s your biggest competitor? And he’s sort of like reaching me. They didn’t have a mode with depending on how you look at is, is, is good or bad. But again, it’s a company growing very, very fast. With 50 percent payout ratio. So perhaps there is somewhere somewhere, but I, I approached this by saying they don’t have a mode.
[00:49:55] Stig Brodersen: And he, he basically said that his concern was it’s not as good of a product as a product like fan jewel, for example. And some of the European based companies are, I should probably say preface that by saying some of the legacy. European based companies, they have been not doing a good job necessarily of innovating, perhaps because it’s been a bit too easy to do what they do.
[00:50:23] Stig Brodersen: And whenever you try their products, it’s not gamified as well as, as, as product like fan jewel, for example. So I w I would very much look at what markets competitors would potentially be competing in. The bigger markets for, this is sort of like, it probably sounds a bit off, but the bigger markets for Betsson, they’re very niche based.
[00:50:43] Stig Brodersen: So they’re big in Peru, in Italy, and in Greece, which is sort of not your typical markets for a, a small cap from Sweden who are in gambling. And they’re very good at targeting. Individual markets. Now let’s talk a bit about the valuation. So it’s a relatively new position for me. My average price here was 120.7 Swedish kroner. It’s at the time of recordings trading 130. Here we’re looking at a company with roughly 20 percent return on investor capital, 8. 8 times price to earnings. It just looks cheap. It looks even, even if you factor in some of the risks that I, that I mentioned, you know, some of them are more mature markets that they’re in.
[00:51:25] Stig Brodersen: Sometimes what the regulators would do is that they were going to increase taxes and the operators can’t really do too much about it because they’re already in the market. I should also mention there’s a huge tailwind from a lot of markets that opening up right now. I can’t really figure out why it’s so cheap, which is probably gives you a pause.
[00:51:44] Stig Brodersen: And it probably should give you a pause. I think that there was an element of it being a sin stock. It doesn’t sound nice to say that you’re investing in a, in a gambling company. There are you know, for example, whenever the Norwegian sovereign funds sold out of evolution, AB, like the, the game provider, like, so there are different headwinds from being in, in that space.
[00:52:05] Stig Brodersen: They’re net cash, I should say, but you know, there are a lot of gambling companies that are not that cash. And it’s very expensive for let’s call the sin stocks to raise capital compared to all industries. So I think that that probably has something to do with it. And then, you know, in the industry, everyone talks about DraftKings, Flutter.
[00:52:23] Stig Brodersen: And they’re just, they have a big focus in the in the States because there are so many States that are open up right now. And you know, they’re, they’re going at it hard, share dilution, taking on debt. And I don’t know, it’s sort of like in the too hot pile for me. So a conservative Swedish small cap company that’s paying out 50 percent dividend, just it, it’s not as, it’s not as racing.
[00:52:47] Stig Brodersen: It’s not as exciting, I think. And that, and I also mentioned that one thing I really like. About them is that they have a high degree of inside ownership. And so if you go into the, the 10 K and like see who, who owns what, and then you look at some of the names and you look at some of the history of Betsson and it was originally founded by the CEO’s father with two other guys.
[00:53:07] Stig Brodersen: And then their children have now taken all the, shes like, so they, they, they control. It doesn’t look like it’s one family controlling a company, but it’s sort of like the same few families that founded the original company. It was called Cherry at the time, back in the day. And so they’re sort of like sticking together.
[00:53:23] Stig Brodersen: But then before I throw it over to you guys, I just want to say that as much as it’s probably a sin stock and it doesn’t sound nice, there’s a lot of tailwind from a new generation. So here’s just one data point. I read in the Economist the other day, it was quite interesting. So in America, 25 percent of adults plan to wage on the Super Bowl, which was kind of interesting.
[00:53:44] Stig Brodersen: So it’s 44 percent more than last year, but here’s the, here’s the kicker here. Only 6 percent of baby boomers gamble regularly. It’s 25 percent with millennials now. There were no data about GNCs, but I will imagine that it’s even higher for GNCs. And one of the ironies is that there was so much negativity around the gambling section, probably for good reason.
[00:54:06] Stig Brodersen: And they’re regulated so heavily because of that. But you see so many companies out there, not just the social media companies, but you see so many companies out there, even like normal e commerce companies, they’re using the same Tricks, if you want, as the gambling companies to attract people, like they’re gamifying the shopping experience right now and they’re not being regulated.
[00:54:26] Stig Brodersen: So anyways, I just kind of felt that was interesting to point out. Gents, let me throw it back over to you guys.
[00:54:32] Tobias Carlisle: I think this is a really interesting pick. The valuation is very, very compelling. It’s very, very cheap for a good quality business that looks pretty safe, net cash, all that sort of stuff. The main risk is that regulatory risk, but they’ve been around for so long, they seem to know how to deal with that.
[00:54:46] Tobias Carlisle: The funny thing is that, you know how you, you said that was an interesting statistic, 6 percent of baby boomers, 25 percent of millennials and Gen Z, probably even higher. Again, that’s my personal experience, but it’s exactly that. I know a lot of guys who are, 10 or 15 years younger than me, maybe more 10 or 20 years younger than me.
[00:55:03] Tobias Carlisle: Gamble on everything. They have these apps and they just gamble constantly on these things. So I just wonder if that’s like an existential risk that, you know, it wasn’t that long ago that it was all illegal. And then, you know, remember the online poker and then DraftKings came in and then now it’s sort of ubiquitous.
[00:55:20] Tobias Carlisle: And I wonder if there’s going to be some sob stories out of that and the regulators already don’t like it for whatever reason. And then they’ll come in and try and squash it. That’s the sort of, but that’s, that’s probably more of an American thing than the Swedish thing. What do you think, like, how do you, how do you handicap something like that?
[00:55:38] Stig Brodersen: Yeah, I, I don’t know how to tickle a handicap this, and I, and I think I’m, I’m probably biased whenever I almost sound like I’m going to disregard it. Part of it is a bit, it’s a bit American in the sense of perhaps because Americans are very smart and they know that there are a lot of traps and a lot of bad things happening in gambling.
[00:55:56] Stig Brodersen: So it’s not legalized in all states. And even in those states where it’s, where it’s legalized, they’re only limited. At least in some states and Betsson are, they have very, very small presence, almost nonexistent presence in the States, which I personally think is a good thing because they’re, they’re competing with, with Flutter and DraftKings.
[00:56:15] Stig Brodersen: And I, I can see why the products are so good. And right now they’re just burning so much cash being in the U. S. and gaining market share on this. It’s probably the right strategy. I don’t know, but it’s just really difficult for me to figure out whenever the company is losing so much money. So something I’ll be quite concerned about if I invested in a company that was, for example, like Flutter, I would, I would have to figure that out, which is not, I hope it’s not necessarily whenever it comes to, to Betsson.
[00:56:43] Tobias Carlisle: But otherwise, yeah, it looks really, really cheap for the quality of the business. It’s the sort of thing that I would buy because it’s got, it doesn’t have the moat, that’s the most important thing for me, no moat, that’s very attractive.
[00:56:55] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah. So I think it’s a very interesting pick as we were saying, what got my attention was 25 percent of young adults are into like, you know, sports waging.
[00:57:06] Hari Ramachandra: That’s a very interesting statistics. I think this might be benefiting from all the social media trends as well. So that, that might be fueling it because now people kind of share what they’re winning. I see all these WhatsApp groups suddenly spam WhatsApp group, I should add suddenly popping up on my WhatsApp talking about, Hey there is gambling app or whatnot, and groups of people discussing and showing off how much money they made and whatnot.
[00:57:36] Hari Ramachandra: So I think there is definitely like, you know, how people have this how do I say, not such a good way to say Facebook or Meta, but the stock is still doing good. Same with say tobacco companies. I think this is one of those where it’s not something very pleasant and as Toby put it best, right? Like it’s, it’s where, where the money is, but it’s, it’s not something that you can talk about in a cocktail party that much.
[00:58:03] Stig Brodersen: No, it’s better to just put it like in the public platform where everyone can listen to it and judge you for investing in it.
[00:58:11] Tobias Carlisle: The funny thing is it’s like, it’s, there’s some cultural resistance to it in the States that, you know, I’ve encountered since I’ve got here, but I come from a culture like Australia, Australians love to gamble.
[00:58:21] Tobias Carlisle: There’s gambling everywhere in Australia. There’s this horse race once a year, the Melbourne Cup, I think like a hundred percent of Australians gamble on it, like I think school kids gamble on it. I think it’s, it’s like a, it’s a much sort of more accepted part of the culture. Every single bar that you go to in Australia has, they call it a TAB, it’s like a place that you can place a bet.
[00:58:39] Tobias Carlisle: I think it’s all gone online now and I kind of missed all of that transition online in Australia. I do think it’s funny, and I think that the rest of the world knows that Australians like to gamble too, so that’s my excuse, okay, that’s part of my culture, I come from a gambling culture, so you can’t criticize me for, and personally, I don’t like to gamble, I do all my gambling in the stock market, because I like positive, expected value bets, and I don’t like the vig, so there you go.
[00:59:01] Stig Brodersen: You know, it’s kind of interesting you would say that, and we’re talking about the new generation here also, I was, I was looking into evolution gaming, as I was mentioning here before, and they launched a new game called stock market life, which is ironic. Cause I don’t think it’s the stock market life.
[00:59:15] Stig Brodersen: And it’s just like, I was thinking, but the stock market is sort of a game, but it’s, it’s not, it shouldn’t be gambling. It should be like buy and hold. And that’s just not how the new generation are seeing it. Like it’s Robinhood and end of the day option contracts.
[00:59:31] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah, yeah, that’s crazy. Yeah . That’s real gambling.
[00:59:35] Tobias Carlisle: That’s real gambling. And it closes at the end of the day. It’s pure randomness.
[00:59:40] Stig Brodersen: Yeah. Well, well said. And you know, I do think that there’s a cultural element to it where I don’t know if it’s as ingrained in here in Denmark as it is in Australia, but I don’t think it’s as probably as frowned upon as it would be in some places in the States.
[00:59:54] Stig Brodersen: And I think that there, there are probably, they’re probably just different cultural reasons for that. But I do see, and here’s, this is sort of like the macro guy in me coming. So you should probably not listen at all to what I’m saying here, but let’s just look at the States, but it could be anywhere in Europe for that matter.
[01:00:10] Stig Brodersen: You’re seeing so many places where they have public deficits, right? Like that’s, that’s, that’s the rule. So you need to print tax dollars. Then you also have, you also want lowering employment. You especially want certain groups not to be unemployed. If you build resorts, casinos, they provide that type of employment for, you know, sometimes so occupation that you can’t really outsource.
[01:00:38] Stig Brodersen: It has to be on location. That’s one part of it. Then there was just another part of it. And because we were talking about live casinos, but. Online casinos, because of everyone getting your better, better internet connections. And there are some really good experience out there. So if you, if you try going to like a really smoky casino and you see some types there that you probably don’t want to sit next to, like you can hang out with your friends.
[01:01:00] Stig Brodersen: You know, at home and get a really cool experience with a live dealer now. And whenever you’re looking at these gaming companies, they’re making more and more money from those. Like you might be thinking of sports betting, but like where the future really is. And you really more or less feel like you’re in a casino and it’s at your fingertips for better or for worse.
[01:01:18] Stig Brodersen: And so it’s not because I think all of us are going to like using headsets or glasses or anything like that, which would probably give you an even better experience, but like, even just on your laptop, it’s kind of interesting how good the experience is. Then there’s the element of, it’s going to sound, not sound nice, but you know, the, I call it sort of like the seven sin type framework where, you know, we have different things in us as humans, that’s just hardwired into us.
[01:01:45] Stig Brodersen: And so instead of perhaps looking for. What’s the next disruption and how do I bet on the next disruption? Perhaps you want to bet up, bet on what’s not going to be disrupted. And I think, sorry, no pun intended by saying betting on that, but you know, I was like, I would bet on betting not being disrupted if I can put it like that.
[01:02:03] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah. I think the risk is regulatory rather than cultural, probably. You know, the same, the same thing happened with the, with the poker boom, you know, when they had a lot of people playing online poker and then there are a few kind of young guys who blew themselves up. And did it in a, you know, made a spectacle of himself sort of trying to atone for it.
[01:02:21] Tobias Carlisle: And I think that was that created some of the pushback against online gaming or online poker here. But that seems to that’s that’s all that’s my generation that the new generation of kids haven’t got to that point yet. But I do think that the I wouldn’t be surprised if. There’s this explosion now, but in like maybe a few years time, three to five years time, there’s some pushback in the states, but that seems to be the nature of the states.
[01:02:44] Tobias Carlisle: They open up and they, you know, they kind of move it around a little bit. I think probably the Nordic countries, Australia and some of those other countries, it’s just an accepted part of the culture and it’s always been there and it’ll probably always be there. So it’s probably, like you say, it’s, you’re just betting on it changing.
[01:03:01] Hari Ramachandra: With metal coming up with VR and AR, after they’re getting into GameLink cause you know, imagine like, you know, how weird would it be with, with AR and VR? They feel like you’re inside the casino. That’s not a good feeling.
[01:03:14] Stig Brodersen: It’s not a good feeling. You know, there, there is a, this saying in the in the POGO community, it took a genius to invent the poker chip, but it took a hundred geniuses to come up with the online poker chip.
[01:03:29] Stig Brodersen: It’s, it’s so easy to bet online money that it’s just, it’s like, and even if you sit in a live casino, which you hopefully don’t, but even if you sit in a live casino and you put like a hundred. Dollar chip in the middle, like it, it doesn’t feel like real money, but try and sitting there with your, you know, with your mouse, it’s, it’s like, it’s like playing games, like playing Nintendo, you know, you don’t, you don’t even, you don’t even think about it, which is probably why you shouldn’t invest in a dirty company like that.
[01:03:55] Stig Brodersen: But that was one of the five, five stocks in my portfolio that I recently doubled down on.
[01:04:00] Tobias Carlisle: I would say that’s, that’s why you shouldn’t be, that’s why you shouldn’t gamble. In this instance, you’re saying you get to be the house. Like there’s a, there’s a big difference between being the house and being a gambler.
[01:04:09] Tobias Carlisle: I think that you’re much better off being the house than you are being the gambler. Ultimately stick will win. Gamble, gamble on the house.
[01:04:15] Stig Brodersen: All right, gents. Thank you so much as, as always for making time. Hari, where can the audience learn more about you?
[01:04:23] Hari Ramachandra: Yeah, thank you. I think it was fun conversation.
[01:04:26] Hari Ramachandra: Thanks to both of you. I’m always hanging around on Twitter now X, @harirama is my handle. Please come looking forward to conversations.
[01:04:36] Tobias Carlisle: I have two ETFs, Zig, which is a mid cap, large cap. Currently, it’s a little bit at the smaller end, kind of small, according to Morningstar, but deep value portfolio is sort of the way that I’ve described it and deep, same thing, small and micro, and I have a website, Acquire as Multiple.
[01:04:52] Tobias Carlisle: I’m also on Twitter, I refuse to call it X, I’m @Greenbacked, terrible. It’s far too hard, I think I’m going to change it to my name or something. I always love doing these things. I’m envious of the pics that you guys had. I think I’d give myself a bronze or maybe fourth. I’ll give you guys a tight gold today.
[01:05:08] Tobias Carlisle: It was a good one. Thank you for having me.
[01:05:10] Stig Brodersen: Thank you, Toby. And perhaps next time we should just, instead of preparing and coming up with a pitch, we should just all sit and game like what Hari suggested.
[01:05:17] Tobias Carlisle: Too many followers, too many followers.
[01:05:20] Tobias Carlisle: Yeah, right. That’s perfect. All right, gents, thank you so much for your time.
[01:05:23] Tobias Carlisle: And I’ll see you again next quarter. Thanks, Stig. Thanks, Hari. Good seeing you guys.
[01:05:29] Hari Ramachandra: Awesome. Thank you guys. See you.
[01:05:32] Stig Brodersen: So at this point in the episode, I want to transition into the next segment. And I just jump on this call here with you, Clay. Welcome here to the episode.
[01:05:41] Clay Finck: Hi, Stig. It’s always great to chat with you.
[01:05:45] Stig Brodersen: You know, I wanted to have this other segment here about the Mastermind Community because I selflessly have more use of the Mastermind Community than I thought possible, really. And, you know, I have this wonderful opportunity to jump on this call here with Toby and Hari once a quarter and then, you know, I’ll pitch a stock and then hopefully they’re going to say some bad things.
[01:06:05] Stig Brodersen: So I don’t invest all my money in like bad, bad stocks. But you know what, what I really like about our online community is that it’s there 24 seven. So I can be, I can be told that I’m wrong 24 seven. And I sometimes like to think of it as, you know, Omaha at your fingertips. That sounded corny, but that’s sort of like how I’d like to, to think of it.
[01:06:25] Stig Brodersen: And in the Mastermind Community, I really get this chance to speak with you and very thoughtful investors. And we get a, you know, in this case, you know, I was, I was pitching at Betsson and in the mastermind community, I have a chance to have a sounding board. I can, I can pitch it before I jump on the podcast and, you know, display my ignorance to the world.
[01:06:46] Stig Brodersen: And, and, and luckily some people would sort of like try to tear me down in a good way. You know, we’re very respectful in there and talk about the bull cast, talk about the bad case. And so, you know, it’s I really like the opportunity to have a chance to speak with investors, not just about, you know, a specific stock like we’re doing here, which is also good and very important part of the process, but also things like how do you start a position?
[01:07:08] Stig Brodersen: How much should you, how much should you know about a position before you, you initiate it? How do you size it? How do you find additional information and weigh that information? And so, the Mastermind Community for me has just been a very wonderful way of geeking out about stocks on our calls with our members.
[01:07:26] Clay Finck: Yeah, I like how you mentioned having Omaha at your fingertips. You know, we host these live zoom calls and there’s an app we can use. So you can use on your computer or your phone and you know, it’s really at your fingertips literally. And I just love being surrounded by so many like minded investors.
[01:07:44] Clay Finck: You know, one would think that being connected with like minded people would be easy, but I think when it comes to value investing, it’s actually really, really difficult. And I think what also comes with the mastermind community and being surrounded by all these great people is so many of them just have this growth mindset, which is also something I think is super rare.
[01:08:06] Clay Finck: I think it’s one thing to be into investing, but, but since our members are highly vetted, you also have people that just love reading. They oftentimes have been in the markets for many years. They’ve built a successful business or have a very successful career. You know, they, they can share all these things just related to all aspects of life as well.
[01:08:28] Clay Finck: And even for me, when I think about my own kind of investing journey, I’m connected with many of the guests on the show, the host here at TIP. And I feel like even my access to like minded investors is very limited because I don’t want to ask dig to hop on a call with me every week to talk stocks, but the community, like you said, it’s always there at your fingertips.
[01:08:49] Clay Finck: And we host these calls and you always have that outlet at least as an option. And it’s nice to be able to put something on your calendar and just sort of commit to something too. I think. And now we have over 100 members of the community and I’d like to mention that it almost feels like there’s somebody for everybody in the group.
[01:09:09] Clay Finck: For example, I was chatting with a perspective member from China and I was just like, Hey, not everyone in the group is interested in investing in China, but there’s always at least a few people that are interested in something like that. Or most people probably aren’t interested in Betsson, but there’s probably a few people that are interested in learning more or maybe know a thing or two about the company.
[01:09:29] Clay Finck: So it’s nice to have that balance where it’s not too crowded, where there’s 1000 people that want to talk about NVIDIA and Tesla and today’s market news. And it’s not too small where everyone’s in their own niche, essentially. So I, I personally like to collaborate with others that own the same stocks I do, or they, or they’re interested in the same stocks that I am.
[01:09:49] Clay Finck: And if a, say if a stock I own is going through some turbulence, I personally like to chat through things with others, kind of get a better sense of the situation, increase my understanding of the business. And probably my favorite part of the community is just our live events. I’m a big believer that you really just can’t replicate, you know, what happens in person and replicate that in person connection in the same format online.
[01:10:16] Stig Brodersen: Yeah, now that you mentioned it, I’m making my way to London here the day after tomorrow to have a dinner with one of our members. And I’m just like, I’m just so impressed by the, the, the caliber of the members. Like he’s a high ranking as a manager from black rock. You know, I, why else would I meet people like that?
[01:10:33] Stig Brodersen: And so, and I should also say that, you know, the, the event in London would already have taken place. Whenever you, you, you’re going to listen to this episode, we have some, you know, some editing time and all of that stuff. And I, I don’t know if I, I call it an event. I don’t know if that’s the right word here.
[01:10:50] Stig Brodersen: We’re meeting up in the community and eating good food in London. Let’s call that an event. And because I’m the one who are arranging it, sort of, you know, there is no strict agenda. It’s really, you know, we find places to meet and then we talk about investing, we talk about life. It’s not like we have like a, a very strict point by point agenda with different topics that we, that we go through.
[01:11:13] Stig Brodersen: And you know, I also think that there was an element of, you know, so I’ll be hosting this here in London and later we’re going to talk about. Plans that you and Kyle have in New York city. And I, I think that it’s, it’s hard not to have some kind of, of DNA from the people who are hosting it.
[01:11:29] Stig Brodersen: And so, so for example, or perhaps as you say, lack of it, I’ve been working on this with a good friend about organizing a lunch and a dinner for our community. And anyone who know me, they definitely know that I’m not a sommelier by, by any means. So, you know, I have a good friend, he would help with the wine menu.
[01:11:46] Stig Brodersen: He would say things like, we need the 2018 vintage and not the 2017. I’m going to pretend like I know what I’m talking about. You know, he would say, oh, we make like these grapes from this province in France, not the other province, obviously. And so, so we’ve been working together on that. And I, well, whenever I say work together, it’s basically just me nodding and, you know, apparently paying, paying for the wine.
[01:12:10] Stig Brodersen: And so I kind of feel like, you know, it’s it’s really the, the ultra introvert here who are trying to, to create an event, which in my case I’m always inclined to make a cheeky remark about, we only have a private dining room for one of the meals. That’s my way of being extroverted. So anyways, but really, really this day here in London.
[01:12:34] Stig Brodersen: Very structured way of being unstructured, I guess that’s the best way I can communicate it. And we want to have two events in the States annually for the Mastermind Community. We hope to have a recurring one in Europe, which would probably be in London. We’re still working on that, but my best guess is it’s going to be London.
[01:12:54] Stig Brodersen: There are a few communities member there, and you know, it’s, it’s very easy to access. And I also wanted to mention that whenever possible, we do a few non recurring events. There’ll be one in Copenhagen, Denmark, November. We also doing something in Dubai, but we will talk about that another time. I want to throw it over to you, Clay, because we have something coming up here in New York City.
[01:13:15] Clay Finck: Yeah, so regarding the, the wine situation you mentioned Guy Spier in Omaha put me in the exact same spot. I’m, I’m like you, like, I know next to nothing about wine and guy looks me in the eye and he’s like, what kind of wine do you want clay? And I’m just like, I have no idea. And I know he’s really into that stuff.
[01:13:32] Clay Finck: So I just let, let him handle it. But I take a very similar approach to you, Stig, when it comes to organizing events. You know, I want maybe a little bit of structure, but definitely not too much structure. So I sort of see my job as really helping facilitate meaningful connections and meaningful conversations with the group overall.
[01:13:53] Clay Finck: So yes, we’re going to New York city in October from October 4th through the 6th. We have around 20 or so members registered to attend many of which, of course, based around the New York City area. So that accessibility is really good. Each member, they’re welcome to bring a spouse or a friend kind of makes it easier with traveling and what not.
[01:14:14] Clay Finck: And many of the members send off their wives to go have fun or go do shopping in the city. The first night, October 4th, we have a space book to one of the members. I was very happy. One of the members, he mentioned that. We could go to the top floor of the building he lives in and cater and food and socialize there.
[01:14:34] Clay Finck: And I mean, that’s just going to be an amazing spot for us to socialize and whatnot. And then Saturday we have a private space booked at a restaurant in the city. So I’m very much looking forward to New York city. We did an event last year, learned a lot of things on how we want to set this up and then more to come on what we’re going to be doing during the day, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
[01:14:55] Clay Finck: So really looking forward to it.
[01:14:57] Stig Brodersen: That’s fantastic, Clay. And, you know, whenever we speak with our community members, like what they appreciate the most, they always say live events. And then next is the calls that we have together as a community. I keep on saying we, but like, I should give all credit to you, Clay, cause you’re running a community so well.
[01:15:15] Stig Brodersen: What kind of plans do you have for, for group calls coming up?
[01:15:20] Clay Finck: Yeah. So I agree that members also really love the zoom events as well. We typically do at least one a week and. It definitely isn’t all me. You know, I, I take trips and do different things. I’m like, hey, Stig, can you cover me here? And you’ve been very helpful in helping fill in the gaps on sharing your knowledge and using some of your connections to provide value to the community.
[01:15:43] Clay Finck: So here in August, just to. Like at some of the things we’ve done here in August, and then coming up in September, we have a Q and A with Toby Carlisle, longtime friend of TIP. And then we have a member spotlight with a member that’s based in London who works in the investment industry. And he’s been an investor for many years.
[01:16:02] Clay Finck: So I’m super excited to bring him in for a member spotlight. And then we have a few great guests presenting or joining the community in September as well. So we have another member spotlight in September. There’s a private investor I’m connected with outside the community who’s joining us for a Q and A, and he owns many of the high quality names that community members are familiar with.
[01:16:24] Clay Finck: So companies like Copart, Berkshire, Constellation Software, Old Dominion Freight Line. I’ll also mention Shree Viswanathan is going to be joining us for a Q and A. After my podcast goes out with him in September, we’re going to be chatting about Hermes. And how wonderful of a company that is. So I want to mention one of the previous calls we did you and Kyle hosted what you called like a bear bull analysis where you talked about Evolution AB and you took the bull side of the argument and Kyle discussed the bear side and kind of argued both cases.
[01:16:58] Clay Finck: And Kyle actually set up a similar call on tech now on for later in October, which should make for yet another interesting discussion. Yeah. Thank you. And since we’re discussing the zoom calls, a lot of our members live very busy lives. So we record essentially all of these. And I have some members like I chatted with in Omaha, tell me that they pretty much listened to all of our recordings.
[01:17:20] Clay Finck: I was quite, quite surprised to, you know, some of these people. Treat a lot of these calls. We host just like they do at the podcast. They’re tuning in to a lot of them.
[01:17:28] Stig Brodersen: Yeah, and I think that’s a that’s a good point because there’s a whole you know time zone thing your central Kyle is on the West Coast, I’m based in Denmark.
[01:17:37] Stig Brodersen: Luckily many of the same people and I can sometimes see like on your calls and like on my calls I was like, yeah, that’s it’s probably a time something like who’s actually awake when we have this call so we try to cover As many time zones as we can and also have a different times a day.
[01:17:52] Stig Brodersen: And then, you know, sometimes I would have the privilege of also speaking with members on a one on one call. And very often we talk about stock investing is really hard not to, and stock investing is also at the very core. But you know, like, like you were saying before, Clay, there’s also the element of, you know, it’s, it, it takes a village, right?
[01:18:10] Stig Brodersen: So we’re like, like a hundred plus people. And then like you said, some people might be interested in, I don’t know, bets on, and then others are interested in whatever. And so sometimes. What I think you do such a great job of is that connecting people whenever, you know, they have similar interests. And so one thing I’ve been looking into here recently is to acquire a, I’m going to say business podcast or, you know, a small media company, let’s say, you know, one to five million in revenue.
[01:18:36] Stig Brodersen: And I have no idea what I’m doing. To be completely frank. And so, you know, it, it, it’s not because, so I’m speaking with, with other community members about that, not in the sense of they have a business podcast with, you know, cause we, I don’t know, it’s going to sound like a terrible advertise, but you were probably looking at something like 20 million plus 50 million downloads annually type podcast.
[01:18:59] Stig Brodersen: And so you’re basically just buying a company. It’s not because any of the community members have any kind of podcast like that, but they made a number of private acquisitions. And so the discussion is more, it’s not so much about doing business together or raising funds or anything like that. It’s more about, okay, so I’m looking to buy a private company.
[01:19:17] Stig Brodersen: You’ve already bought multiple private companies. How do you do that? And so it’s really like, I call it a support group. I don’t know. Sounds probably sounds like they’re very different whenever I hear myself saying that, but I sort of like think of it as a support group where we help each other in any way we can.
[01:19:37] Clay Finck: Yeah, I love that. And I hop on calls with each new member that joins and, you know, sometimes maybe they haven’t quite yet joined. They just want to figure out what in the world the mastermind community is. And it’s surprising to me how, you know, we talk about it on the show, but. It’s really not clear to people what it actually is.
[01:19:55] Clay Finck: So I’m a big fan of trying to simplify things. So I’ve sort of narrowed this down to there’s three big things. I think people get a lot of value out of the community to try and simplify it as much as possible. So the first reason I think a lot of people enjoy the community is just the networking opportunities.
[01:20:14] Clay Finck: So again, I mentioned all our members are vetted. You have to apply to join. And like you said, like some of the people joining are just like, wow. It’s amazing. Some of the people we have in our podcast audience that are interested in, you know, joining a community like this and networking with others. So yeah, first the networking opportunities, you know, through our online calls, through the online platform we use, and then the live events in person.
[01:20:39] Clay Finck: And then the 2nd reason I think a lot of people join is just continuing on this journey of lifelong learning. So, you know, members present different things. We bring in podcast guests to discuss a lot of members are big readers. So we’re sharing the books we’re reading and the things we’re diving into.
[01:20:57] Clay Finck: So that’s definitely the 2nd thing is just sort of an extension of the podcast of extending, utilizing that opportunity to continue to learn. And then the 3rd thing. A lot of people just love getting and sharing stock ideas. So it’s definitely not a place to get stock recommendations, but maybe you get some ideas from others that from other people who are also value investors, they are big fans of the show and they really get everyone’s sort of on this.
[01:21:24] Clay Finck: Everyone’s sort of looking at a lot of stocks through a similar lens. It’s probably the best way I’ll put it. So if any of this sounds interesting to you, you can add your name to the wait list on our website. That’s theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind. And I think that’s all I have, Stig.
[01:21:40] Stig Brodersen: Thank you so much, Clay.
[01:21:41] Stig Brodersen: And thank you so much for hosting such a wonderful community together with Kyle. It’s absolutely fantastic. So with that being said, I think we’ll just end the episode.
[01:21:49] Clay Finck: Great. Thank you, Stig.
[01:21:51] Outro: Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow We Study Billionaires on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes to access our show notes transcripts or courses go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.
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BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
- Listen to Mastermind Discussion Q2 2024 – TIP632 or watch the video.
- Tune in to the Mastermind Discussion Q1 2024 or watch the video.
- Listen to Mastermind Discussion Q4 2023 – TIP586 or watch the video.
- Tune in to the Mastermind Discussion Q3 2023 – TIP576 or watch the video.
- Listen to Mastermind Discussion Q2 2023 – TIP557 or watch the video.
- Tune in to Mastermind Discussion Q1 2023 – TIP528 or watch the video.
- Stig Brodersen’s portfolio and return.
- Tobias Carlisle’s podcast, The Acquirers Podcast
- Tobias Carlisle’s ETF, ZIG.
- Tobias Carlisle’s ETF, Deep.
- Tobias Carlisle’s book, The Acquirer’s Multiple – read reviews of this book.
- Tobias Carlisle’s Acquirer’s Multiple stock screener: AcquirersMultiple.com.
- Tweet directly to Tobias Carlisle.
- Hari’s Blog: BitsBusiness.com
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